Reading the Polls
E-Day minus 75
The opening polls are all over the place.
Yesterday morning, before the announcement, Nanos released a poll that had CPC at 31.5, NDP 30.1, LPC 29.3. It was taken over four weeks, back to July 5. This morning we woke up to Innovative Research with NDP 33.7, CPC 29.3, LPC 25.8, taken July 24 to 30. Finally Forum had NDP 39, CPC 28, LPC 25. Forum polling was entirely done yesterday after the election was called.
Eric Grenier's CBC Poll tracker which weighs and averages recent polls thus creating a more accurate larger sample and a useful mix of methodologies had the campaign start at NDP 33.2, CPC 30.9 and LPC 25.9. This included the three polls released yesterday and today.
Truisms about the polls:
1. Up to a point, trust them for what they are, the best rough snapshot of where public opinion is now, much better than going to a pub or the hair salon/barber shop and asking around.
2. Polls that are significantly different from the Grenier averages are probably out of whack although sometimes they are the harbingers of a new trend or shift. So take the last Nanos numbers with a grain of salt. It is likely Forum is too high for the NDP and too low for the CPC, though it is possible Forum may have identified a post-call jump for the NDP. Unlikely.
3. Most of the time the polls are right by the end of the campaign, although they may underestimate the status quo vote by a few percentage points (see 2011 Canada, 2014 Ontario, 2015 UK and 2015 Alberta). This is sometimes attributed to the "shy voter" effect in which respondents to polling won't admit to a choice they perceive is unpopular. It could also be a last minute conservative impulse nervous of change. So add two or three points to the Conservatives in this election, to be safe.
4. Our old friend Margin of Error is real. A single poll can be as much as 3% points out either way. So, for example, today's Forum could reflect the NDP at 36%, with the CPC at 31% and still be considered accurate.
This election therefore starts in a three way tie, on the surface, with the Liberals perhaps a bit behind. The answers to follow-up polling questions, approval/disapproval ratings, second choice, the economy, for example, indicate that, at this stage, the Conservatives will have the hardest time growing their vote presently at 30% plus or minus. Harper is very unpopular with 70% of the electorate and the Conservatives have the smallest pool of voters who will consider voting CPC.
The Conservatives need to win a majority or near-majority to stay in office. That means around 38 to 39% nationally. Anything less and Harper is likely to be history. Liberal and NDP voters will insist on it. In 2011 the CPC started on day one with between 35.3 to 43% and with better secondary numbers. On Election Day 2011 they received 39.3% and a majority in the House of Commons. Today's polls suggest they are a net five to six percentage points short of what they need to win. In a change election this will very tough to make up. Harper is going to have a tough time remaining in office once the votes in this election are counted.
The opening polls are all over the place.
Yesterday morning, before the announcement, Nanos released a poll that had CPC at 31.5, NDP 30.1, LPC 29.3. It was taken over four weeks, back to July 5. This morning we woke up to Innovative Research with NDP 33.7, CPC 29.3, LPC 25.8, taken July 24 to 30. Finally Forum had NDP 39, CPC 28, LPC 25. Forum polling was entirely done yesterday after the election was called.
Eric Grenier's CBC Poll tracker which weighs and averages recent polls thus creating a more accurate larger sample and a useful mix of methodologies had the campaign start at NDP 33.2, CPC 30.9 and LPC 25.9. This included the three polls released yesterday and today.
Truisms about the polls:
1. Up to a point, trust them for what they are, the best rough snapshot of where public opinion is now, much better than going to a pub or the hair salon/barber shop and asking around.
2. Polls that are significantly different from the Grenier averages are probably out of whack although sometimes they are the harbingers of a new trend or shift. So take the last Nanos numbers with a grain of salt. It is likely Forum is too high for the NDP and too low for the CPC, though it is possible Forum may have identified a post-call jump for the NDP. Unlikely.
3. Most of the time the polls are right by the end of the campaign, although they may underestimate the status quo vote by a few percentage points (see 2011 Canada, 2014 Ontario, 2015 UK and 2015 Alberta). This is sometimes attributed to the "shy voter" effect in which respondents to polling won't admit to a choice they perceive is unpopular. It could also be a last minute conservative impulse nervous of change. So add two or three points to the Conservatives in this election, to be safe.
4. Our old friend Margin of Error is real. A single poll can be as much as 3% points out either way. So, for example, today's Forum could reflect the NDP at 36%, with the CPC at 31% and still be considered accurate.
This election therefore starts in a three way tie, on the surface, with the Liberals perhaps a bit behind. The answers to follow-up polling questions, approval/disapproval ratings, second choice, the economy, for example, indicate that, at this stage, the Conservatives will have the hardest time growing their vote presently at 30% plus or minus. Harper is very unpopular with 70% of the electorate and the Conservatives have the smallest pool of voters who will consider voting CPC.
The Conservatives need to win a majority or near-majority to stay in office. That means around 38 to 39% nationally. Anything less and Harper is likely to be history. Liberal and NDP voters will insist on it. In 2011 the CPC started on day one with between 35.3 to 43% and with better secondary numbers. On Election Day 2011 they received 39.3% and a majority in the House of Commons. Today's polls suggest they are a net five to six percentage points short of what they need to win. In a change election this will very tough to make up. Harper is going to have a tough time remaining in office once the votes in this election are counted.
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