Unpacking the Election
With the election of Doug Ford and the PCs, Ontario now has a truckload of baggage. We have a lot of unpacking to do. This time the polls got it right. Voters wanted a change in government. Even before Ford moved into the void created by Patrick Brown’s troubles, a majority was in sight for the Conservatives. The New Democrats have doubled their seats to form the Official Opposition. The Liberals lost official party status and the Greens won a seat. In the three party splits in every Ontario election since 1943, solid majorities are given to parties that win between 38 and 46%. In the final count, Ford won 41% and pushed the NDP back to 34% from the height of 39% reached mid-campaign (with the exception of two outliers who had them at 42% and 47%.) There was a real chance that the NDP could overtake the Conservatives under Ford’s flawed leadership but its momentum stalled. A week before the election, the NDP was levitating beyond its natural base of support. It was