Are the three parties really tied?
E-Day minus 64
Three main “events” in the opening two weeks of the election campaign: the debate, the polls and Nigel Wright’s testimony.
The debate was a draw from which the Liberals got a slight uplift. The Conservatives and NDP confirmed their positions. On average, the poll numbers didn't budge much.
The impact of Nigel Wright’s testimony and the ensuing media commentary is not yet reflected in the polls. None of the published polls were taken after Wright’s testimony began, except for the last day of the Leger polling. Leger was published Saturday and unusually showed the CPC dropping to third place, NDP 33, LPC 28, CPC 27. Start of a trend, perhaps, a polling anomaly or a brief negative blip? We'll see.
Key and obvious conclusion from the early polling: there have been no breakouts from the close bunching of all three parties. Yet is it really a tie, as the media prefer to describe it? They like a tight contest. To describe an election as close suggests neutrality. Accepting Eric Grenier’s CBC Poll Tracker as the most accurate reflection of the current state of voter intention, NDP 32, CPC 30, LPC 27, as I do, it is arguably close. But it is not a tie. Mistrust headlines that suggest it is.
The Conservatives have to get a majority to survive as a government. Anything less, even if they get the most seats in a minority Parliament, will almost certainly see the NDP and the Liberals vote Harper out, either by agreeing on a coalition or a formal working arrangement or coming to an informal understanding. Whether Harper gets the most seats, if he is short of a majority his lead in seats will merely postpone his leaving taking. To secure a CPC majority Harper needs to reach 38 to 39% of the vote. He is currently a long way from that.
The Conservatives have “flat-lined” around 30%, far from majority territory, despite the advantage in money and incumbency. They are not well liked even by many in their own base, let alone the rest of the electorate. More than 70% of respondents are telling pollsters they want a change of government. As of early last week less than 30% indicated they wanted the government re-elected. And that was before Nigel Wright began his testimony and the emails were filed in court.
Wright's testimony has to be devastating for the Conservatives. The CBC says it had 3,000,000 viewers for last Thursday’s At Issue panel, more than watched the debate. The panel members had read the emails and studied the evidence. Their palpable anger with what they had experienced seemed to override their journalistic cynicism about government. Individual Conservatives I have spoken to are looking for an alternative. My own biased expectation is that Harper has nowhere to go but down. Recalling Rob and Doug Ford, rock bottom may not be much deeper than where they are now, around 30%. The Conservatives will have great difficulty in getting back into majority territory.
So the real question to watch as the campaign moves along is, for me, whether the NDP or the Liberals will win the most seats in the next Parliament, regardless of the Conservative totals (assuming they don't get a majority).
The Liberals and the NDP will likely exchange seat leads gained in Atlantic Canada and B.C. respectively. Atlantic Canada has a total of 32 seats and will give 10 plus more seats to the LPC than to the NDP. B.C. will likely add a similar lead in seats to the NDP total. The Prairies, including Alberta and the North look like a wash, at this point. Quebec will give the NDP a big lead over the Liberals, perhaps as much as 35 to 40 seats. Which leaves Ontario.
Right now the NDP has crept up in Ontario to be in the thick of a genuine three-way split in votes and close to that in seats as between the Liberals and the NDP. Grenier shows Liberals at 38 projected seats, the NDP at 31. If the seat distribution stays in this range, the big prize goes comfortably to Tom Mulcair.
Trudeau has to engineer a substantial swing in Ontario, in the order of Kathleen Wynne’s victory in 2014 where she won 37 more seats than Andrea Horwath’s NDP. A very tall order but not impossible.
In the first two weeks there was no sign of a building Liberal sweep in Ontario. Trudeau lacks many of the advantages Wynne had last year, including the strategic voting card.
With nine weeks to go, it isn’t really a tie. The NDP has a sizeable lead, though not an insurmountable one, in the race for the PM's office. The Liberals are still in it but significantly behind and the Conservatives are the farthest away from the goal, effectively in third place. We will be watching for any signs of a change.
During the election I'll post a fresh set of observations no later than 9 p.m. every Sunday evening. Your comments and observations on the topics are much appreciated. I look forward to the conversation online and offline. johnfbrewin[at]gmail.com
The debate was a draw from which the Liberals got a slight uplift. The Conservatives and NDP confirmed their positions. On average, the poll numbers didn't budge much.
The impact of Nigel Wright’s testimony and the ensuing media commentary is not yet reflected in the polls. None of the published polls were taken after Wright’s testimony began, except for the last day of the Leger polling. Leger was published Saturday and unusually showed the CPC dropping to third place, NDP 33, LPC 28, CPC 27. Start of a trend, perhaps, a polling anomaly or a brief negative blip? We'll see.
Key and obvious conclusion from the early polling: there have been no breakouts from the close bunching of all three parties. Yet is it really a tie, as the media prefer to describe it? They like a tight contest. To describe an election as close suggests neutrality. Accepting Eric Grenier’s CBC Poll Tracker as the most accurate reflection of the current state of voter intention, NDP 32, CPC 30, LPC 27, as I do, it is arguably close. But it is not a tie. Mistrust headlines that suggest it is.
The Conservatives have to get a majority to survive as a government. Anything less, even if they get the most seats in a minority Parliament, will almost certainly see the NDP and the Liberals vote Harper out, either by agreeing on a coalition or a formal working arrangement or coming to an informal understanding. Whether Harper gets the most seats, if he is short of a majority his lead in seats will merely postpone his leaving taking. To secure a CPC majority Harper needs to reach 38 to 39% of the vote. He is currently a long way from that.
The Conservatives have “flat-lined” around 30%, far from majority territory, despite the advantage in money and incumbency. They are not well liked even by many in their own base, let alone the rest of the electorate. More than 70% of respondents are telling pollsters they want a change of government. As of early last week less than 30% indicated they wanted the government re-elected. And that was before Nigel Wright began his testimony and the emails were filed in court.
Wright's testimony has to be devastating for the Conservatives. The CBC says it had 3,000,000 viewers for last Thursday’s At Issue panel, more than watched the debate. The panel members had read the emails and studied the evidence. Their palpable anger with what they had experienced seemed to override their journalistic cynicism about government. Individual Conservatives I have spoken to are looking for an alternative. My own biased expectation is that Harper has nowhere to go but down. Recalling Rob and Doug Ford, rock bottom may not be much deeper than where they are now, around 30%. The Conservatives will have great difficulty in getting back into majority territory.
So the real question to watch as the campaign moves along is, for me, whether the NDP or the Liberals will win the most seats in the next Parliament, regardless of the Conservative totals (assuming they don't get a majority).
The Liberals and the NDP will likely exchange seat leads gained in Atlantic Canada and B.C. respectively. Atlantic Canada has a total of 32 seats and will give 10 plus more seats to the LPC than to the NDP. B.C. will likely add a similar lead in seats to the NDP total. The Prairies, including Alberta and the North look like a wash, at this point. Quebec will give the NDP a big lead over the Liberals, perhaps as much as 35 to 40 seats. Which leaves Ontario.
Right now the NDP has crept up in Ontario to be in the thick of a genuine three-way split in votes and close to that in seats as between the Liberals and the NDP. Grenier shows Liberals at 38 projected seats, the NDP at 31. If the seat distribution stays in this range, the big prize goes comfortably to Tom Mulcair.
Trudeau has to engineer a substantial swing in Ontario, in the order of Kathleen Wynne’s victory in 2014 where she won 37 more seats than Andrea Horwath’s NDP. A very tall order but not impossible.
In the first two weeks there was no sign of a building Liberal sweep in Ontario. Trudeau lacks many of the advantages Wynne had last year, including the strategic voting card.
With nine weeks to go, it isn’t really a tie. The NDP has a sizeable lead, though not an insurmountable one, in the race for the PM's office. The Liberals are still in it but significantly behind and the Conservatives are the farthest away from the goal, effectively in third place. We will be watching for any signs of a change.
During the election I'll post a fresh set of observations no later than 9 p.m. every Sunday evening. Your comments and observations on the topics are much appreciated. I look forward to the conversation online and offline. johnfbrewin[at]gmail.com
I appreciate your analysis and sincerely hope things continue along this path. Thanks for helping keep us informed!
ReplyDeleteIn addition to the 'main events', I wonder about the collective effects of some other issues such as the two constitutional challenges launched against the new anti-terror legislation (C-51), and the revocation of voting rights for Canadians living abroad for more than five years, or the complaint filed with Security Intelligence Review Committee about alleged illegal surveillance of environmental groups opposed to the Keystone XL pipeline. Will they sway opinion? Or will the fact that there will not be decisions on these issues before the election render them background noise?
-Tim Carpentier