E-Day Minus 16
Fivethirtyeight.com is the best in the business of aggregating and analyzing election polls. So, what does the site tell us at this point in the campaign? A candidate needs 270 Electoral College votes to win. With just over two weeks to go to Election Day, 538.com shows Biden ahead substantially, i.e. by 6.8% points or more in states with 274 Electoral College votes, including the closest of the “battleground” or tipping point states, Minnesota (+9.1%), Michigan (+7.9), Wisconsin (+7.8%) and Pennsylvania (+6.8%). Fivethirtyeight.com gives Biden an 88% chance or better of winning in each of these states. With leads in New Hampshire of 11.6%), Florida (+4.0%), Arizona (+3.9%) and North Carolina (+3.2%) Biden is rated respectively at an 86%, 72%, 67% and 67% chance of winning those states. They provide backup if, for some reason, one of the battleground states falters (or is “stolen”). Georgia and Texas, both rated as toss-ups or leaning slightly for Trump, provide further backup. So here