The Night Before

As many of you know, I go to church most Sundays. St. Aidan’s Anglican in the Beaches. While at church, I often think about politics.

Tomorrow’s election was top of mind this morning as I listened to two ancient stories during the service. A man named Jacob wrestled with God through the night – ten long hours, we’re told. It’s a narrative about a lifelong struggle as experienced by one imperfect, very human being. In the end, Jacob wins but God strikes him on the hip. He is left disabled. Fighting for justice leaves us with bruises. We’re changed forever. Was that the lesson?

I heard the second story as a pre-election parable – as a witness to more than half of Canada’s federal elections almost always from the losing side. It’s the story of a widow denied justice by a cynical judge. She persists and comes back to the judge again and again until finally the he gives in and grants the widow her petition. Who we see as the judge and widow in this story says a lot about our image of God, society and ourselves.

In this moment, I identified the judge as the electorate. I saw the widow as everyone, including myself, who has fought for social, economic and environmental justice through electoral politics over the course of our lives. Finally, the voters – the often cynical judge – cede to our persistent demands. Maybe out of respect for our indefatigable idealism. Maybe out of the deep recognition that our claims are true. Will tomorrow be one of those days? A day when, in the words of Irish poet Seamus Heaney, “hope and history rhyme”? We can’t know. But here I am. Hopeful.

St. Aidan’s priest Lucy Reid made a single mention of the federal election in her sermon on these two texts. Remember, she said, whatever the result of tomorrow’s election, the struggle continues. Justice takes a long time.

I expect one of two possible results. I’m not at all sure which it will be. And they are quite different. Neither will result in a Conservative government by the way. That won’t happen, in my view.

We’re living tonight into a story told by the final polls and the computers that calculate the most likely composition of the next Parliament. They are predicting a weak showing for the Liberals and the CPC who are virtually tied at around 31-32%of the national vote. Gains are forecasted for the NDP and for the Bloc in Québec. In this scenario, it is much more likely the Liberals will end up with more seats than the Conservatives but not by much.

A progressive government will emerge out of discussions between the Liberals, the NDP, the Greens and the Bloc – either a multi-party coalition or a negotiated working agreement that leaves the Liberals as the sole party in government kept in office by some or all of the others.

Another different, possible and unpredicted version of the story would have the Liberals winning a majority or close to it. In this scenario, the Liberals would once again govern on their own or stickhandle through the thickets on an issue-by-issue basis with the NDP and the rest of the opposition. A significant number of voters, 3-5% perhaps, would have to return to the Liberals at the last minute and out of sight of the pollsters. In the privacy of the voting booth, voters have been known to become cautious and choose the “devil known over the devil unknown”, or to simply offer a second chance to someone who has let them down.

Many lessons are already in hand, just as we have already experienced wins and losses:

- The Greens have made a major move forward – even though their vote and seat total may feel like a crushing defeat in comparison to their expectations at the start. They have communicated their message about the urgency of the climate crisis well; they’ve helped Canadians see the fate of the planet unless we act now. The Greens are now one more step along the road to becoming an important political actor on the electoral stage. The early years of a new political party are the hardest ones but offer their own intrinsic rewards as New Democrats know from the stories of the CCF. It takes a long time to break into our party system.

- The NDP’s Jagmeet Singh has done spectacularly well in his first campaign. He has answered any questions about his leadership and is now the most popular leader in the country, especially with young voters. The NDP will not be written out of the story as predicted before the writ was dropped. Like Jacob who struggled with unseen forces for many hours, the NDP has proven its strength and resolve. It has been changed for the better. We can be proud of its role in challenging racism and religious intolerance in Canada by choosing Jagmeet to lead the party and then recruiting an exceptionally diverse group of candidates, including 166 women – the highest number of all six parties by a significant margin. A good showing on the long road to racial and gender justice.

- The Conservatives will have to review their divisive tactic of pitching only to their base. They must learn somehow to rebuild the bigger tent that brought progressives and conservatives together to offer a plausible alternative to Canadians.

- As for the Liberals, there have been humbling and proud moments in the run up to and during this election. Democratic power and the trust of the electorate are privileges. Power and trust shouldn’t come easily or be taken for granted. They are earned. Although I wasn’t happy Barack Obama came out for Trudeau, I can imagine the pride Liberals felt when they received his endorsement. I’m going to think of it as a tribute to Canada and a sign of the trust placed in us by progressive friends around the world who must band together in these difficult times.

The most important poll of this election will be taken tomorrow. The last task of this campaign remains for thousands of campaign workers: pulling the vote. Along with my daughter Gillian in St. Paul’s, my niece Rosie in Davenport, and many other friends and family members across the country, I will be doing what I can to get my friends and neighbours to the polls.

But if you’re a voter who is still wrestling with your decision tonight, I hope you’ll wake in the morning with the understanding that we've already won – even if your hip hurts! We live in a democracy. One worth fighting for over and over and over again.