Sailing into September
E-Day minus 50
The polls this week have reported a wider
range of results than in previous weeks. The overall picture, however, has not
fundamentally changed. The Grenier CBC
Poll Tracker average is NDP 36%, CPC 28 and LPC 27 compared to last week’s 34,
29, 28. The small NDP gain is the result of one poll, by Forum Research, that
had the NDP at 40%. This wasn’t repeated by any other poll, although Angus Reid
did have the NDP at 37. The rest had the NDP generally in the area of 33-35%. The
Forum poll, as with the Nanos poll at the low end of the range, should be
discounted until it is confirmed by other polls. So far that hasn’t happened.
The key takeaways at this leg of the marathon are:
The key takeaways at this leg of the marathon are:
- The NDP is still on track to win a greater number of seats in Parliament than the Liberals on October 19.
- The Conservatives continue to be a long way from majority/survival numbers. The Duffy trial is one more significant obstacle that the Conservatives have to overcome.
(If you're still wondering about what the PMO knew or didn't know about the Wright-Duffy transaction, take a look at the late Finance Minister Jim Flaherty’s reaction to the Prime Minister's statement to the House of Commons.)
The most interesting story of the week is the deficit issue and how the three campaigns have positioned themselves. It has revealed differences in policy and electoral tactics.
The Conservatives presented themselves again as the party of balanced budgets even though they have failed to balance the past six budgets. This year’s budget is in doubt.
Mulcair committed the NDP to balance its first and all subsequent budgets in the tradition of Tommy Douglas and other NDP provincial administrations. Douglas balanced seventeen straight budgets on the way to introducing Medicare to Canada.
In an interview last month, Trudeau said the Liberals would balance the budget, not run deficits. Previous Liberal administrations have made a virtue of balancing budgets. Trudeau shook things up last Thursday by reversing himself and announcing he would run three deficits in a row – in order, he said, to finance a program to build and renew Canada’s physical infrastructure and create jobs.
Mulcair and party strategists now face tactical decisions similar to sailboat racers who find themselves in front. Let me explain. One of the three legs of most sailboat races is into the wind. To make progress, you have to “tack” or zigzag up the course. Sailboats can’t sail straight into the wind – they would simply be blown backwards, away from their objective. If you zigzag with the sail pulled in closely, the keel or centreboard stops the tendency to be pushed down wind and you are able to move forward, though not in a straight line.
If you are behind in a sailboat race, you try to tack away from your competition and over to a different part of the course. You pursue the possibility of finding a better wind there.
This is exactly what the Liberals have done on the deficit issue. They are trying to get to a different part of the course where the wind is better for them – away from the NDP. The leading boat usually responds to this tactic by “covering” the pursuing boat i.e. wherever the pursuing boat goes, the leading boat goes in the same direction. Both boats will experience the same wind, and the pursuing boat won’t be able to catch up.
Mulcair hasn’t made the covering move yet, instead sticking to his course and leaving the Liberals to sail off on theirs. He has simply doubled down on the commitment to a balanced budget. It will be interesting to see which leader finds the fairer winds in the weeks ahead.
The most interesting story of the week is the deficit issue and how the three campaigns have positioned themselves. It has revealed differences in policy and electoral tactics.
The Conservatives presented themselves again as the party of balanced budgets even though they have failed to balance the past six budgets. This year’s budget is in doubt.
Mulcair committed the NDP to balance its first and all subsequent budgets in the tradition of Tommy Douglas and other NDP provincial administrations. Douglas balanced seventeen straight budgets on the way to introducing Medicare to Canada.
In an interview last month, Trudeau said the Liberals would balance the budget, not run deficits. Previous Liberal administrations have made a virtue of balancing budgets. Trudeau shook things up last Thursday by reversing himself and announcing he would run three deficits in a row – in order, he said, to finance a program to build and renew Canada’s physical infrastructure and create jobs.
Mulcair and party strategists now face tactical decisions similar to sailboat racers who find themselves in front. Let me explain. One of the three legs of most sailboat races is into the wind. To make progress, you have to “tack” or zigzag up the course. Sailboats can’t sail straight into the wind – they would simply be blown backwards, away from their objective. If you zigzag with the sail pulled in closely, the keel or centreboard stops the tendency to be pushed down wind and you are able to move forward, though not in a straight line.
If you are behind in a sailboat race, you try to tack away from your competition and over to a different part of the course. You pursue the possibility of finding a better wind there.
This is exactly what the Liberals have done on the deficit issue. They are trying to get to a different part of the course where the wind is better for them – away from the NDP. The leading boat usually responds to this tactic by “covering” the pursuing boat i.e. wherever the pursuing boat goes, the leading boat goes in the same direction. Both boats will experience the same wind, and the pursuing boat won’t be able to catch up.
Mulcair hasn’t made the covering move yet, instead sticking to his course and leaving the Liberals to sail off on theirs. He has simply doubled down on the commitment to a balanced budget. It will be interesting to see which leader finds the fairer winds in the weeks ahead.
Great blog!
ReplyDelete