Choosing Between Two Schools
In two months, on November 8th, our American neighbours will elect their next President. All summer I have given my election addiction free rein. Here’s my sense of what's happening in this unusual campaign. As of today, there are two competing views of the state of the race. One is that Hillary Clinton maintains a solid lead and will almost certainly win, likely comfortably. The other is that the race is tightening to the point that the outcome is very uncertain. Perhaps this is obvious. This year nothing is obvious. We will only be able to tell once what has happened when it is over and the results are in. The "solid lead school" is supported by most of the polls, pollsters, aggregates of polls and aggregates of the aggregates. The latter are the most reliable. Single polls are the least reliable. There are about five, maybe six aggregators, including the betting sites, that pull together the polls and other information into predictions. These