What I See

-

On the night before the U.S. Presidential Election, this is what I see:

First, Biden is very likely to win.

Today, the polls tell the same story they have been telling throughout the year: Biden has a clear and stable lead in the national vote of at least seven to eight percentage points, more than enough to win the Electoral College. The many reputable and up-to-date state polls are generally and independently consistent. Biden will likely win Pennsylvania and likely at least one of the other scenarios to put him over the top: Arizona plus the one seat needed and available in Nebraska, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida or Texas. 

In addition, there are many other indicators that, experience over my lifetime, lead me to expect a strong victory across the board for the Democrats up and down the ballot. Most notable is the huge increase in turnout across the electorate. There are simply too many independent and unrelated indicators pointing in the same direction.

Second, a certain outcome cannot be predicted.

Trump’s only plausible path to victory is this:

  • The vote is closer than all the indicators suggest especially in a few key states. As is clear to most everyone, Biden is in a much stronger position in the final polls than Hillary Clinton was in 2016. Her polls overestimated her support in three key states Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Trump narrowly and unexpectedly won all three and with them took the Electoral College. If Biden’s vote has been similarly overestimated, he will still win – in a properly counted election.
  • Trump has to hope it is close enough in states that, if a Biden lead can be overturned with the “legal” suppression of the necessary number of votes, his lawyers can force the final result into the courts. Many of the appellate courts, most decisively the Supreme Court, are filled with judges who have demonstrated over the years they will not apply the usual democratic principle of interpreting the law in favour of protecting the right to have their vote and voice counted. 
  • This approach has a long history in the U.S. Lyndon Johnston famously won his seat in the Senate in 1948. Democratic appointed judges, despite overwhelming evidence that Johnston’s team stuffed a late reporting ballot box with sufficient votes to overturn his opponent’s lead. John Kennedy’s father is said to have engineered a similar and decisive victory for Kennedy in Illinois in 1960. Slavery was the ultimate form of vote suppression. When slavery was abolished white Southerners came up with slightly more sophisticated methods of denying African-American citizens of their right to vote for 100 years. They were open about threatening Blacks with death, injury or economic destruction if they even tried to vote. They are still at it. If the issue can be forced into the courts, Trump has a chance.
  • Trump won’t be able simply to refuse to leave. Even though he has primed his (armed) base to be prepared to resist, the American institutions are in fact organized to deal with an illegal seizure of power, even if supported by violence on the streets.
  • If Trump is successful in forcing the issue into the courts -- and the courts, in particular the Supreme Court of the United States, ultimately proclaims him the victor -- it is not likely Biden supporters will take to the streets to turn Trump out of office. Mobilization to bring about progressive change, however, will begin but it won't happen overnight.

On Election Night, the commentators and analysts will keep reminding viewers of the complexities of the count. Key point: early returns from Florida, North Carolina, Georgia and Ohio will provide clues to experienced election analysts as to the direction of the results. 

If Biden is ahead of or equal to poll expectations in bellweather counties, then it is likely that will be happening all across the state and the country -- and vice versa. Early in 2016 it was apparent Hillary Clinton was in trouble by 8 PM. In 2008 and 2012 early results pointed to final results – a decisive Obama win nationally. 

We should experience the same thing tomorrow night. Only in a really tight race will the final outcome drag on into December. More about those scenarios if necessary. Let's hope they won't be.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Should Biden Step Aside?

-
NY Times writer Ezra Klein recently posted a powerful episode on his podcast called Democrats Have a Better Option than Biden . He makes a strong case that Biden should step aside and require the Democratic convention in August select someone else to run against Trump. Faced with major pushback this week Klein has himself pushed back. Klein argues that it is not that Biden is too old to be President but that he is too old to be the candidate; that there is a very serious chance he won’t beat Trump. He asks us to compare Biden’s YouTube appearance in 2020 and today to convince ourselves that crucial voters have already begun making the judgement that he is too old, fair or not, and Klein believes those who have observed Biden in action over the past four years including in recent months, that Biden in office is fit, decisive and competent. Klein says however that Biden is unable to present himself persuasively that he is in fact fit for office. There is a very serious risk that this wi
Read more

Prospects for the Next Parliament

-
As the 2021 federal election campaign winds down, we seem to be heading for a “hung Parliament” -- a Parliament in which no single party can form a stable and sustainable government on its own or, put another way, without the cooperation of members from other parties. The poll aggregate sites show a slight (16%) chance that the Liberals will end up with a majority of at least 170 seats in the House of Commons. The Conservatives’ chances of gaining a majority are now down to 1%. Far more likely (83%) is that no party will have a majority. What happens then? Under our constitution the sitting government (the Liberal Party in this case) may have fewer seats than the Conservatives who themselves fall short of a majority. In these circumstances,Trudeau would still be entitled to meet Parliament and try to win a “vote of confidence”. They could win that vote if one or more of the other parties agreed to support a Liberal Prime Minister, the present one or someone new either within the new Li
Read more

Anxiety Attacks

-
E-Day minus 15 Anxiety is like a virus – it spreads from host to host quickly. It's contagious. When anxiety is high, people lose their capacity for reflection. Everyone left of Jason Kenney has been flattened by at least one anxiety attack this past week. Not only are the politics of division stirring up deep-seated fears, there is persistent anxiety that somehow Harper will pull it off in the end. There is anxiety amongst NDP supporters that the opportunity of a lifetime will be lost. Dramatic swings toward and away from the Liberal Party are making their supporters dizzy and disoriented. Progressive voters, looking for any port in the storm, have become desperate for reliable strategic voting advice. All of this is very bad for morale and weakens our collective capacity for clear-headed analysis and decision-making. Let’s see what the numbers actually say – not what the media says they say – to regain some perspective. None of the public polls show the Conservatives c
Read more