Riding the Rollercoaster

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Wow, what a roller coaster ride!

As I write, it isn’t over yet -- to say nothing of possible legal suits and/or extra-legal challenges. However, it is just about over. With Wisconsin and Michigan declared for Biden, there are only 17 Electoral College votes to go. They could come from Arizona  or Georgia and Nevada, from North Carolina or from Pennsylvania. To squeak in, Trump could lose either Arizona or Nevada but would have to win everything else. Some will be decided tonight, Pennsylvania likely tomorrow or Friday.

Those who have studied it think Biden could win any or all of the above – that is why they are deemed too close to call. Biden could well win them all. It would take winning a plausible number of the remaining ballots, most of which are from pro-Biden areas and are in the form of early mailed-in or dropped off ballots. Democrats used this way of voting more often than Republicans, so they have tended to break towards Biden.

Biden has already begun the work of transition. He is making phone calls to his supporters thanking them for their efforts. He speaks quietly and confidently to the country encouraging people to be patient. He will undoubtedly be turning his mind to the two and half month formal transition process. He will largely officially ignore Trump except to the extent necessary.

If the roller coaster suddenly turns direction again, Biden will have to adjust -- as will we all.

So, what happened?

The pollsters obviously over-estimated Trump’s strength especially in a number of subsets of the electorate such as Hispanics in Florida. While the results were closer than anyone would have hoped, and again Florida was disappointing in its failure to end the election quickly, the eventual picture is consistent with the picture the polls painted. Biden will be declared the winner, tonight or tomorrow. He was won three of the northern Blue Wall, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. Pennsylvania is quite possible though because of the slower count it may turn out not to be necessary.

Biden has won Arizona and the extra votes from Nebraska and probably Maine. He has held the Clinton states, though Nevada is still on the edge waiting for the final count. He is competitive in North Carolina and Georgia. As long as he stays on this path to victory, Joe Biden will be President. Kamala Harris will be Vice-President.

The renewal of Republican control of the Senate is bad news for those who hope for fundamental changes in the U.S. governance. A topic for future discussion is how effective Biden will be in overcoming the GOP Senate majority. More to follow. Stay tuned.

PS: As you know, I have an addiction-like fascination with the polls. I still believe polls are the best source of information on the state of public opinion. But it's easy to get carried away by them. We know polls are never exact. They can lull us into a sense of false security. In fact, polls are invariably, perhaps decisively wrong, in the sense that they can’t get closer than a few possibly decisive percentage points from the final results. I suspect I will succumb to "poll-itis" in the future, but I pledge that in future I will take them with a much larger grain of salt.

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