To Jump or Be Pushed

In the U.S. and here in Canada as well, political anxiety levels are off the charts. Outside of the Trump bubble, folks have no idea how Trump could possibly have won last time, though they did develop a few theories. No one has any idea how he has managed to stay in office, except that the U.S. system of governance is dysfunctional. Now he is behind in the polls, we can only be certain either that the polls are wrong, that he will lie and cheat his way back and/or challenge his defeat and get it reversed by the Supreme Court, or otherwise refuse to leave the White House.

I’m with James Carville on all of this. Bill Clinton’s strategist and now generally cranky old guy pundit has predicted that either Trump will lose or he’ll quit before the election even happens. I think he is right. One of the other will happen. He won’t be re-elected. We can relax, just a little bit.

Here’s why he will lose if he doesn’t quit first. The current state of public opinion in the United States among likely voters is clear. I underline the word current. Polls are the best measure we have of the way folks will vote as of the day or the hour the polls are taken. Of course they can change between today and Election. That is a separate question. But they are the best starting point in analyzing what will happen in the U.S. on November 3 this year.

Within a couple of percentage points, polls are incredibly accurate. And they get better every year as the polling companies refine their craft. Averaging or aggregating the polls tends to eliminate rogue results or individual polling biases.  I’ve looked at 54 individually polling results in June from over a dozen different polling companies. The national results in June are remarkably steady showing a Biden lead of 9 to 10% points over Trump. Of the 54 individual polls, six show leads of more than 12% points and six show less than 8% points. That leaves 42 with a Biden lead of between 8 and 12% nationally. State polls show precisely the same thing: Biden is running 9 to 10% points ahead of Clinton’s results in the same states in 2016. The consistency is stunning, and persuasive to me.

Earlier in the year Biden was ahead but only by 4 to 6% points. That was a lead that was vulnerable to the edge Trump had in the critical Electoral College, chosen on a state by state basis. That’s how Clinton lost last time while winning the popular vote by 2.1% points.  The late May – June numbers reflect the electorate’s assessment of Trump’s and, to a lesser extent, Biden’s performance in the face of the major crises the United States is undergoing now: COVID-19, confidence in police forces and the economy. Significant groups of voters are drifting away from Trump to Biden, enough to dramatically change the dynamics of the final four months before the election. 

In these circumstances and looking at the underlying reasons for the drift towards Biden, I’m convinced there is virtually no chance Biden’s lead will evaporate to the point Trump will win. If anything the lead might well expand.

The underlying polling numbers show a majority of Americans approve, not disapprove of Black Lives Matter and say policing must change. That is a radical change in American public opinion.  A majority disapprove of how Trump has handled race issues arising from the murder of George Floyd and other Black Americans. A majority disapprove of how Trump has handled COVID-19. That is likely to increase, one would think, as cases spike not decrease. While Trump has a narrow lead on who can handle the economy better, that could change up or down between now and Election Day. My own expectation is the economy will not improve much if at all and that number won’t change much. Trump’s overall approval rating has declined noticeably as his election poll numbers also decline. A majority of Americans, even Republicans, say they believe the country is heading in the wrong direction.

Finally, Trump’s personal performance continues to deteriorate in public. His behaviour really hasn’t changed much since 2016 but his weaknesses are now being fully revealed for all to see, just as the final group of the electorate really focuses on how they intend to vote. The polls show Trump is losing his huge lead among older white voters, white voters generally and even those without a college degree, the key components of his base. At this point it isn’t a total collapse. It is a steady and noticeable leak. The ship is tilting to port (that’s left in non-nautical language, though I may have mixed my metaphors slightly). The lead rats may soon be seen leaping before it sinks altogether. 

So at worst, I believe, the voting intentions will stay as they are now. It is probably more likely Biden’s lead will increase, not decline. The Biden iceberg won’t melt.

Which takes us to the quitting issue.

I woke up one morning recently wondering what would go through Trump’s mind if the idea of resigning crept into his head. At first I rejected the idea. It would be too humiliating for him. Then came back to it.  I even started a blog post on it. Then left it. Until the other day when James Carville said on cable news that he thought there was a 50-50 chance it would happen. Trump would quit rather than face defeat, said Carver. So that made two of us. Hmm.

Trump’s weaknesses include his shallow knowledge of politics, let alone on how to govern. He has never faced a political crisis before. In public including on twitter he shows no sign of having anything that resembles a strategy except to play with the form of nickname he will give Biden.  The stress and tension must be unbearable for him. The poll numbers are just as likely to get worse, not better. He faces the continuing strain of having to handle the real crisis of governing, a task even he must realize are beyond him. He is out of touch with the voters. His capacity for self-illusion compounded by the stroking he must be getting from his immediate and remaining followers, may keep him from jumping or even breaking. But don’t be too sure. 

My own experience tells me that leaders take a long time to realize it is over. They don’t quit easily. And therefore Trump may not resign before Election Day. But I’m with my buddy James. It could well happen. And he’ll have no difficulty in finding a doctor to sign a note telling him he has to find a different job. I’m sure Dr. Fauci would oblige.