Bringing an End to the Trump Nightmare

Finally we're seeing signs that the long nightmare of the Trump presidency may be over soon. A majority of Americans are now recognizing Trump for who he is: completely unfit for this high office. They're telling pollsters that they will not re-elect him. His electoral support is melting at the edges.

For a month and a half at least, Biden has consolidated a steady nine to 10% point lead nationally according to a wide variety of national and state polls. The lead is more than enough to overcome any possible Electoral College advantage Trump may have, and any slippage in the remaining months of the campaign. Biden is solidly ahead in all of the “tipping states” like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida, the ones that will make the difference in the Electoral College. He's also competitive in states like Texas, Iowa, Montana and Georgia that could well lead him to a big victory and control of the Senate.

The underlying numbers explain why this is happening and what Trump is up against in the run up to the vote in November. He has to overcome several obstacles. His arrogance is a huge hurdle. He believes he can win this time with divisive and excessively partisan tactics simply because he won last time. Trump is the incumbent now, and will be held responsible for the catastrophic economic and social situation.

In a well-rated NBC/Wall Street Journal poll by Hart Research Associates, 50% of the respondents said there was “no chance” they would vote for Trump. Another six percent said there was “a very slight chance” that they would vote for him. A further three percent said there was a “small chance” they’d vote for Trump. Only 41% said they would vote for Trump or that there was a small chance they would do so. Fifty-two percent said they were “very uncomfortable” with Trump as a candidate.

Biden’s results on the same questions were 37% said there was no chance they’d vote for him, and 38% were “uncomfortable” with him -- about the same number as Trump’s base vote. Among those who are not happy with either candidate, two-thirds say they will vote for Biden disliking him less than they do Trump. In 2016, those numbers were reversed and were significantly and decisively in the end for Trump over Hillary Clinton.

For Trump to win, assuming these numbers are more or less accurate, Trump will have to win over a significant number of voters who now say there is no chance or only a very slight chance they will vote for him. That is much harder to do than win over undecided voters. Seventy-two percent say the country is headed in the wrong direction. This has been for years a key measure of an incumbent’s re-electability.

The difficulty for Trump in turning this around is that a strong majority of voters don’t approve of the job he is doing generally or specifically on the issues that matter most to them: COVID-19, race relations, and health care.  In another poll, Trump has fallen behind on his handling of the economy. Confidence in Trump’s skills for dealing with key issues is generally below 40%. He is behind among self-identified “Independent” voters and slipping among Republicans. All of these numbers are worse for Trump now than they were even a few months ago. Americans are making up their minds that he can’t handle the job. In contrast Biden is presenting himself as an empathic, calm antidote to crazy and chaotic Trump. As a result, Biden is steadily gaining in these categories.

The appeal of Biden and the fear of Trump seems to have unified the Democratic Party behind a program of hopeful and positive change. Biden moved quickly to work out an agreement with Bernie Sanders. That was translated into a set of policies that will be presented to the Democratic convention this summer. The central piece is a commitment to the progressive Green New Deal, including a $2 trillion (!) funding package to meet the challenge of climate change and the building of a new economy. It's the product of consultation across movements, including environmental and labour leaders and many others. Winning the Senate will be a key to enacting the necessary legislation. That now looks possible and maybe even probable.

I know folks worry, especially with such high stakes for people and the planet, that Trump will somehow pull another rabbit out of the hat. They worry about voters becoming complacent or unmotivated or suppressed. They even worry that Trump may lose the election, but refuse to recognize the legitimacy of the results. What if he refuses to leave the White House when the time comes for the transfer of power? My own experience is pessimism only reduces people’s interest in voting. Optimism generates turnout. It's time to be optimistic that the election will deliver the correct verdict on this disastrous presidency. 

In life, in death and in life beyond death, the late Congressman John Lewis offers a prescription for what ails the American democratic project. My hope is that voters will take a good dose of his wisdom everyday until the time comes to mark their ballots. These words from Lewis' 2017 memoir seem particularly important at this moment:

"Freedom is not a state; it is an act. It is not some enchanted garden perched high on a distant plateau where we can finally sit down and rest. Freedom is the continuous action we all must take, and each generation must do its part to create an even more fair, more just society."