Pilgrim's Progress

E-Day minus 1 (!)

If the polls are correct, tomorrow’s election will not produce a majority government. The Globe Forecaster says there is a merely 15% chance the Liberals will win a majority. Not a single poll, nor any combination of polls or seat prediction sites, gives the other parties any chance of a majority.

In the final hours, projected results can change for any number of reasons. The continuation of a swing in voters. The return of voters to an earlier choice more consistent with their history or values.  The efficiency of a party’s E-Day organization and its ability to “pull” its vote.  Possibly a combination of all three.

In the recent UK election commentators identified a handful of voters as “shy Conservatives.” They suspected that these voters didn’t tell pollsters the truth during the campaign. Instead they kept what they feared might be unpopular opinions to themselves until Election Day.

A Liberal majority would not be a complete surprise although it is hard to see today where they would find as many as 150 seats let alone 170. By far the most likely result tomorrow is therefore, as the British say, a “hung” Parliament with no single party commanding a majority.

At the end of what’s been a very long process, the polls can only give us a rough outline of the parties’ standings – not a precise count. They indicate that the Liberals will have the most seats in the next Parliament, the Conservatives will come second, and the NDP third. The Conservatives are close to the Liberals in projected seats; there is still a chance that they could pull ahead when seats are finally tallied – although far short of a majority.

It won’t make any difference if the Conservatives do edge the Liberals for the most seats. A Conservative lead in seats would only affect the timing of Harper’s departure as Prime Minister. If he insists on meeting Parliament, as is his right, the other parties will defeat him on a “confidence” vote at the first opportunity and he will be obliged to resign. Under our constitution he will have no choice.

So, tonight is the eve of the end for the nine-year old Harper government.  Now what?

If the Liberal Party comes out of election night with more seats than the NDP, discussions between the two parties will begin in earnest. They will seek a basis for the NDP to support a government led by the Liberal leader. The NDP will bring to the negotiating table the ability to provide that government with some stability. The discussions will include the form that cooperation will take: a coalition, a formal working arrangement or an informal deal. If the negotiations do not lead to an agreement, the Liberals will take their chances day by day, risking defeat and another election each time a vote is called in the House of Commons.

The two parties share many policy objectives and should have little difficulty in sorting out a shared agenda. The top priority for the NDP should be proportional representation (PR) within the life of this new Parliament. The NDP and Liberals will have the chance to use their combined power to ensure no one can ever again take full control of the federal government after receiving a minority of votes.

Both parties are officially committed to PR. The Liberals, however, haven’t identified which system they prefer. Trudeau has signaled that he would set up a commission to produce an answer and then seek a national referendum before implementing it. Both a commission and a referendum delay electoral reforms and risk defeat. The NDP favours a mixed system as in New Zealand and argues no referendum is necessary. In the party’s view, the House of Commons is responsible for the system that elects its members.

A coalition or political merger between the Liberals and the NDP is not likely to happen in the immediate future. This election, like many others before it, demonstrated that the two parties are different. They have different priorities, different histories, and represent different core constituencies. They share enough to make a divided Parliament work but not enough to be a single, unified party. 

Making Parliament work is both an immediate and long-term goal. In fact, in the run up to Canada’s 150^th anniversary, we can think of electoral reform as our next great national project.

Most of you know that I’m a lifelong Anglican. This morning I attended a service at the downtown church where my grandfather served as rector, my parents met, married and became democratic socialists, and I grew up singing in the choir, taking it all in.

After I lost my seat in Parliament in the 1993 General Election, I took my questions about the future of the social democratic movement into a Master of Theological Studies program at UBC. I wrote my thesis on my father and the conditions that turned him into a CCF supporter despite strong family connections to Liberals and Conservatives. When it came time to give it a title, I was inspired by an old Anglican hymn called “He Who Would Valiant Be” which tells the story of pilgrims on a journey to a better world.

And this, much to my surprise, was the hymn we sang to close the service today. Singing these words helped me celebrate the progress we’ve made and recognize that, whatever the outcome for the NDP this time, the work continues: “There’s no discouragement shall make them once relent their first avowed intent to be a pilgrim.”