Anxiety Attacks
E-Day minus 15
Anxiety is like a virus – it spreads from
host to host quickly. It's contagious. When anxiety is high, people lose their capacity for reflection. Everyone left of Jason Kenney has been flattened by at least one
anxiety attack this past week.
Not only are the politics of division stirring up deep-seated fears, there is persistent anxiety that somehow Harper will pull it off in the end. There is anxiety amongst NDP supporters that the opportunity of a lifetime will be lost. Dramatic swings toward and away from the Liberal Party are making their supporters dizzy and disoriented. Progressive voters, looking for any port in the storm, have become desperate for reliable strategic voting advice. All of this is very bad for morale and weakens our collective capacity for clear-headed analysis and decision-making.
Let’s see what the numbers actually say – not what the media says they say – to regain some perspective.
None of the public polls show the Conservatives close to a majority of seats in the next House of Commons. A couple of polls reported some improvement in Conservative support, the highest 34%. The average of public polls put them at 32%; Grenier’s CBC Poll Tracker has them at 31.6%. Harper probably needs at least 39% to win a majority of 170 seats in the next Parliament.
The seat projection sites all still predict a minority Parliament. Grenier places the Conservatives at 123, although that may be a bit low as he gives perhaps undue weight to Nanos in his calculations. They are probably around 130 to 135.
The Globe Forecaster continues to advise that there is only a 1% chance that any party, obviously including the Conservatives, will get a majority. For those who have their bags packed for a move to Denmark in anticipation of four more years of Harper, they should hold off ordering the cab to the airport for now.
In the final two weeks of the campaign, we will be watching to see if the vaunted Conservative machine, money and wedge politics can overcome the apparent weariness in much of the country with Harper and his version of the Conservative Party of Canada. As for the battle between the Liberals and the NDP to be first in line when the Governor General is looking for a replacement for Harper, the struggle is far from over.
We’re seeing an “orange slip” but not the “orange crash” described in the media this week. On the other side, the Liberal results are erratic. In one poll this week, the Liberals had fallen below the NDP, a result not widely reported. In the others the Liberals were ahead of the NDP in poll results of voting intentions. At the end of the week Grenier has current voting intentions at Liberals 30.9%, NDP 26.6.
Those numbers do not guarantee the Liberals a lead over the NDP in seats. Six of eight election prediction sites this week had the NDP still ahead of the Liberals in predicted seat count, even though the NDP was behind the Liberals in total votes. The Election Prediction Project has identified 95 CPC seats, NDP 86 and Liberals 70 with 88 seats too close to call.
That said, the reporting of poll results is atrocious. Nanos polls 400 people a night. From that small sample, it purports to identify significant trends even though the shifts may be well within the margin of error. The Globe and Mail, having paid for Nanos’ polling, gives front page coverage to its dubious conclusions. It is dispiriting to see the CBC and others follow suit. The Star’s Forum poll reported that the Liberals’ seat prediction had dropped to 76 with the NDP still well ahead of the Liberals at 104. The media story, however, was the alleged rise of Conservatives because of the niqab issue. That was the headline and the first 10 paragraphs of the Star’s account of the Forum poll. The actual seat prediction was buried.
Do media reports on polls have an impact on the election result? Certainly the election campaign teams hate coverage of negative polls and the development of a story that their party is lagging behind. Morale matters to campaigners. As many Canadians are tempted into strategic voting, accurate and balanced reporting of polls matters.
The reporting of the debates this past week, with the focus on who won or lost without any analysis of the substance of what was said, does not serve democracy either. Toronto-based journalist (and fellow Stoney Laker) Patricia Pearson said it well in social media this week:
"The media covers political debates as if they were sporting events, assessing performance and tactics, rather than substance. This is how our democracy fades. Imagine CBS coverage of the American Constitution: ‘Jefferson came across as a bit tired and emotional on the point of the pursuit of happiness. His wig was askew. He seemed a bit punchy. I'd be surprised if he made his case.’"
The reputation of CBC’s At Issue panel was tarnished this week by its superficial discussion of the Munk Debate on foreign policy. Much of the media won’t cover anything other than the horse race and party leaders’ performance to avoid accusations of partisanship. In the end they dumb down our politics – already dumb enough after a century of this kind of reporting. We could do with a serious post-election discussion of this issue.
My advice to all the parties: do not prematurely shout triumph or wallow in despair. Put your heads down and work hard. In two weeks, it will be done and the next chapter will begin. Know we can survive these anxious times.
Not only are the politics of division stirring up deep-seated fears, there is persistent anxiety that somehow Harper will pull it off in the end. There is anxiety amongst NDP supporters that the opportunity of a lifetime will be lost. Dramatic swings toward and away from the Liberal Party are making their supporters dizzy and disoriented. Progressive voters, looking for any port in the storm, have become desperate for reliable strategic voting advice. All of this is very bad for morale and weakens our collective capacity for clear-headed analysis and decision-making.
Let’s see what the numbers actually say – not what the media says they say – to regain some perspective.
None of the public polls show the Conservatives close to a majority of seats in the next House of Commons. A couple of polls reported some improvement in Conservative support, the highest 34%. The average of public polls put them at 32%; Grenier’s CBC Poll Tracker has them at 31.6%. Harper probably needs at least 39% to win a majority of 170 seats in the next Parliament.
The seat projection sites all still predict a minority Parliament. Grenier places the Conservatives at 123, although that may be a bit low as he gives perhaps undue weight to Nanos in his calculations. They are probably around 130 to 135.
The Globe Forecaster continues to advise that there is only a 1% chance that any party, obviously including the Conservatives, will get a majority. For those who have their bags packed for a move to Denmark in anticipation of four more years of Harper, they should hold off ordering the cab to the airport for now.
In the final two weeks of the campaign, we will be watching to see if the vaunted Conservative machine, money and wedge politics can overcome the apparent weariness in much of the country with Harper and his version of the Conservative Party of Canada. As for the battle between the Liberals and the NDP to be first in line when the Governor General is looking for a replacement for Harper, the struggle is far from over.
We’re seeing an “orange slip” but not the “orange crash” described in the media this week. On the other side, the Liberal results are erratic. In one poll this week, the Liberals had fallen below the NDP, a result not widely reported. In the others the Liberals were ahead of the NDP in poll results of voting intentions. At the end of the week Grenier has current voting intentions at Liberals 30.9%, NDP 26.6.
Those numbers do not guarantee the Liberals a lead over the NDP in seats. Six of eight election prediction sites this week had the NDP still ahead of the Liberals in predicted seat count, even though the NDP was behind the Liberals in total votes. The Election Prediction Project has identified 95 CPC seats, NDP 86 and Liberals 70 with 88 seats too close to call.
That said, the reporting of poll results is atrocious. Nanos polls 400 people a night. From that small sample, it purports to identify significant trends even though the shifts may be well within the margin of error. The Globe and Mail, having paid for Nanos’ polling, gives front page coverage to its dubious conclusions. It is dispiriting to see the CBC and others follow suit. The Star’s Forum poll reported that the Liberals’ seat prediction had dropped to 76 with the NDP still well ahead of the Liberals at 104. The media story, however, was the alleged rise of Conservatives because of the niqab issue. That was the headline and the first 10 paragraphs of the Star’s account of the Forum poll. The actual seat prediction was buried.
Do media reports on polls have an impact on the election result? Certainly the election campaign teams hate coverage of negative polls and the development of a story that their party is lagging behind. Morale matters to campaigners. As many Canadians are tempted into strategic voting, accurate and balanced reporting of polls matters.
The reporting of the debates this past week, with the focus on who won or lost without any analysis of the substance of what was said, does not serve democracy either. Toronto-based journalist (and fellow Stoney Laker) Patricia Pearson said it well in social media this week:
"The media covers political debates as if they were sporting events, assessing performance and tactics, rather than substance. This is how our democracy fades. Imagine CBS coverage of the American Constitution: ‘Jefferson came across as a bit tired and emotional on the point of the pursuit of happiness. His wig was askew. He seemed a bit punchy. I'd be surprised if he made his case.’"
The reputation of CBC’s At Issue panel was tarnished this week by its superficial discussion of the Munk Debate on foreign policy. Much of the media won’t cover anything other than the horse race and party leaders’ performance to avoid accusations of partisanship. In the end they dumb down our politics – already dumb enough after a century of this kind of reporting. We could do with a serious post-election discussion of this issue.
My advice to all the parties: do not prematurely shout triumph or wallow in despair. Put your heads down and work hard. In two weeks, it will be done and the next chapter will begin. Know we can survive these anxious times.
Thanks for this, John.
ReplyDeleteA valuable commentary worth sharing. Having said that, I was in Saskatchewan the last time the NDP won provincial reelection. It was done with a campaign that promoted 5 major, priority commitments just about always presented together. These were backed up by a widely distributed, detailed platform that referenced a thorough plan with 101 measures large and small. In this campaign the NDP has an excellent national plan that addresses six core themes. But I don't feel it has yet been effectively promoted to be fully valued and evaluated by the interested public. Regrettably I have not received this core plan at my door to have it on paper and in my hand. Its full value and impact is not so easily read and appreciated on line. www.ndp.ca/plan.
ReplyDeleteVery wise counsel John. Heads down. Shoulder to the wheel.
ReplyDeleteThere is also CBC's 'Poll of Polls' problem. Nanos is running their 400 people cross-Canada poll every day. Other polls seem to be weekly or bi-weekly. This means that CBC's reporting is biased - 80/20 Nanos at least. To report this as an aggregate number is beyond stupid.
ReplyDeletePolls proved to be nothing but hype here in BC & AB last time around.
ReplyDeleteThis election, they make me nauseous.
Poor naïve Canadians, are falling for Harpers vile/racist/ campaign approach. SHAME on Canada if we vote that bigot into office one more time