The Trust Election

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E-Day minus 43

According to CBC’s Poll Tracker, this week’s topline averages of national voting intentions compared to the start of the campaign:


Today
Aug. 2
NDP
32.1%
33.2%
LPC
29.5
25.9
CPC
27.7
30.9

Within the averages is a wide variation. One poll this week, Forum Research, had the NDP at 36%, the Liberals at 32 and the Conservatives at 24. Another, EKOS, had NDP 30.2%, CPC 29.5 and LPC 27.7.

 We can draw the following conclusions at this point in the race:

  • A Conservative majority is increasingly out of reach. They are now in third place and falling, slowly but steadily. Public attitudes towards Harper -- both for and against -- have hardened.
  • The contest between Mulcair and Trudeau isn’t as close as the aggregate voting intention numbers and the media suggest. What matters is which of the two wins the greatest number of seats in the next House of Commons. Seat projections place Mulcair significantly ahead of Trudeau in Québec. The rest of the country, including Ontario, is more or less evenly divided between them.
  • Outside of Ontario, there isn’t much room for an increase or decrease in the number of seats for either the NDP or the Liberals from current projected levels.
Let’s take a closer look at Ontario. The province will have 121 of 338 seats in the next House of Commons.  At this point, the LPC leads the NDP and the CPC by 4 – 8 points each in Ontario according to national polls. To win more seats than Mulcair overall, Trudeau has to generate the same level of support in Ontario that the NDP leader is realizing in Québec – a projected lead of 40 seats or more over the LPC. Trudeau will need to be ahead of the NDP by more than 20 percentage points in Ontario on October 19. As it stands, the two leaders and their parties are evenly matched when it comes to their potential to make gains in the province over the next six weeks.

 In the end, it will come down to the so-called “ballot question”. On what basis will swing voters – those who are anti-Harper and torn between the Liberals and New Democrats – make their choice in Ontario and elsewhere in the country?

 I think the ballot question is now a two-part one: who should I vote for to make sure Harper is defeated and who can I trust to lead the next government in a manner consistent with my values and hopes for Canada?  This question is, at the same time, principled and pragmatic. 

 It’s a matter of trust on a deep level. Bill C-51, the revelations from the Duffy trial, the deficit, the Syrian refugee response and other hot issues are providing context for swing voters’ deliberations, especially in Ontario, about which leader has the integrity, competence and maturity to be Prime Minister. What do we stand for, who represents us, and how do we want to be governed?

 The next six weeks promise to be intense. Elections touch all of us even those who choose to opt out. The decision is an historic statement about where we are and where we’re headed. This time, it’s also a choice between who we’ve become and who we will be.

Comments

  1. Douglas Tindal7 September 2015 at 08:35

    I like your insight that the ballot question may be both principled and pragmatic. That's where I live -- neither slavishly devoted to an ideology, nor willing to surrender principle for "whatever works." Discussions of strategic voting often overlook the fact that there are still principles underlying the strategy. It's helpful to keep this dynamic in mind.

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