Polls, Predictions and the Niqab
E-Day minus 22
This week, the average of the national
polls show the Conservatives and Liberals at 31% and the NDP at 28%. Grenier’s
weighted averages are similar (with last week’s percentages in brackets): CPC
30.7% (29.7), LPC 30.8 (29.7) and NDP 29.1 (31.1). The NDP has dropped 2%
points. The others have picked up about 1% point each.
Despite the slide, the NDP still leads the Liberals in most seat projections. And seats are what count most. If the NDP can maintain support even at this week’s level, Mulcair will be the Prime Minister after October 19.
The week’s polls and seat projections show that the Conservatives have not made any significant progress towards a majority – the only way Harper can stay on as Prime Minister. As noted in earlier posts, it doesn’t matter if the Conservatives have the most seats as long as they don’t win a majority. The others will find a way to defeat him. Their constituents will demand it. What matters is which party – the NDP or the Liberals – end up with more seats than the other. The leader of the larger of the two parties in Parliament will be Prime Minister either of a minority government or a coalition.
The NDP remains ahead of the Liberals in most seat projections, notwithstanding the lower vote share. This is because the NDP vote, as with the Conservative vote, is focused where it does the most good in terms of winning seats. Remember how George Bush defeated Al Gore in 2000 even though Gore won more votes overall? Gore “wasted” votes in piling up unnecessarily big majorities in states like California and New York. Bush’s fewer votes were spread out and he was able to win more states and more electoral college votes with fewer overall votes. The same phenomenon works in our single-member constituency system. In this election it helps the NDP and the Conservatives, and disadvantages the Liberals.
Of seven election predictions sites reviewed, two have the Liberals marginally ahead of the NDP, one by two seats, the other by three. The other five have the NDP ahead of the Liberals by anywhere from seven to 16 seats.
The Election Prediction Project offers a different way of seeing the potential outcome. After analysing every seat in Canada the site calls 98 seats for the NDP, 88 for the Conservatives and 68 for the Liberals with 82 too close to call. These predictions are likely solid. Of the 82 seats that aren’t called yet for a party, the Liberals are not in the race in a significant number. Many of the tight contests are between the NDP and the Conservatives. None of the parties will give up these close seats without a struggle.
So, what will tip the balance at this point in the election?
The answer turns on a number of issues including the niqab question, inserted forcefully and outrageously into the campaign by Harper and Duceppe. The issue is resonating in Quebec perhaps because the province’s special concern for identity heightens cultural sensitivity on such issues. Views don’t seem to vary much across Canada. In Quebec, however, the issue is experienced with greater intensity.
Here are my observations on the political impact of the niqab debate:
1. It may be another in a long series of issues that have dominated for a short time and faded quickly – here today, largely forgotten tomorrow. Duffy and Wright, the recession, the deficit, Syrian refugees, among others.
2. Or the argument may be won, though time is short, by the civil liberties’ approach that in the end people in this country have a right to decide what to wear assuming it doesn’t hurt anyone else, even if the rest of us may not like it. Opinion on Bill C-51 was turned around, as was opinion on the War Measures’ Act. In both of those cases, however, it took a lot more than three weeks in the heat of an election campaign to change public opinion.
3. The issue may not be “vote-determinative”, that is, while people feel strongly about it, or at least have opinions, it may not shift their vote.
4. Whether the issue shifts votes or not will hinge on how the voters who feel strongly negative about the wearing of the niqab at citizenship ceremonies view the political alternatives they have. In most of Canada that alternative is Harper. In Quebec the alternatives are the Conservatives around Quebec City and the Bloc in Francophone Quebec. That may give the issue more bite in Quebec, not so much elsewhere.
5. Ironically the issue may not help Harper even though he is shamelessly advancing it. It won’t lift him into majority territory. He’s too far away from that target and isn’t positioned to win many seats in Quebec even with the issue. If the effect is to significantly reduce the number of NDP seats from Quebec, it may help the Liberals – Harper’s lifelong political foe – to emerge as the leading opposition party.
It's now time for the party leaders to articulate a unifying vision for Canada and to pull a widely divergent set of issues into a coherent agenda upon which voters can make a decision on October 19.
Despite the slide, the NDP still leads the Liberals in most seat projections. And seats are what count most. If the NDP can maintain support even at this week’s level, Mulcair will be the Prime Minister after October 19.
The week’s polls and seat projections show that the Conservatives have not made any significant progress towards a majority – the only way Harper can stay on as Prime Minister. As noted in earlier posts, it doesn’t matter if the Conservatives have the most seats as long as they don’t win a majority. The others will find a way to defeat him. Their constituents will demand it. What matters is which party – the NDP or the Liberals – end up with more seats than the other. The leader of the larger of the two parties in Parliament will be Prime Minister either of a minority government or a coalition.
The NDP remains ahead of the Liberals in most seat projections, notwithstanding the lower vote share. This is because the NDP vote, as with the Conservative vote, is focused where it does the most good in terms of winning seats. Remember how George Bush defeated Al Gore in 2000 even though Gore won more votes overall? Gore “wasted” votes in piling up unnecessarily big majorities in states like California and New York. Bush’s fewer votes were spread out and he was able to win more states and more electoral college votes with fewer overall votes. The same phenomenon works in our single-member constituency system. In this election it helps the NDP and the Conservatives, and disadvantages the Liberals.
Of seven election predictions sites reviewed, two have the Liberals marginally ahead of the NDP, one by two seats, the other by three. The other five have the NDP ahead of the Liberals by anywhere from seven to 16 seats.
The Election Prediction Project offers a different way of seeing the potential outcome. After analysing every seat in Canada the site calls 98 seats for the NDP, 88 for the Conservatives and 68 for the Liberals with 82 too close to call. These predictions are likely solid. Of the 82 seats that aren’t called yet for a party, the Liberals are not in the race in a significant number. Many of the tight contests are between the NDP and the Conservatives. None of the parties will give up these close seats without a struggle.
So, what will tip the balance at this point in the election?
The answer turns on a number of issues including the niqab question, inserted forcefully and outrageously into the campaign by Harper and Duceppe. The issue is resonating in Quebec perhaps because the province’s special concern for identity heightens cultural sensitivity on such issues. Views don’t seem to vary much across Canada. In Quebec, however, the issue is experienced with greater intensity.
Here are my observations on the political impact of the niqab debate:
1. It may be another in a long series of issues that have dominated for a short time and faded quickly – here today, largely forgotten tomorrow. Duffy and Wright, the recession, the deficit, Syrian refugees, among others.
2. Or the argument may be won, though time is short, by the civil liberties’ approach that in the end people in this country have a right to decide what to wear assuming it doesn’t hurt anyone else, even if the rest of us may not like it. Opinion on Bill C-51 was turned around, as was opinion on the War Measures’ Act. In both of those cases, however, it took a lot more than three weeks in the heat of an election campaign to change public opinion.
3. The issue may not be “vote-determinative”, that is, while people feel strongly about it, or at least have opinions, it may not shift their vote.
4. Whether the issue shifts votes or not will hinge on how the voters who feel strongly negative about the wearing of the niqab at citizenship ceremonies view the political alternatives they have. In most of Canada that alternative is Harper. In Quebec the alternatives are the Conservatives around Quebec City and the Bloc in Francophone Quebec. That may give the issue more bite in Quebec, not so much elsewhere.
5. Ironically the issue may not help Harper even though he is shamelessly advancing it. It won’t lift him into majority territory. He’s too far away from that target and isn’t positioned to win many seats in Quebec even with the issue. If the effect is to significantly reduce the number of NDP seats from Quebec, it may help the Liberals – Harper’s lifelong political foe – to emerge as the leading opposition party.
It's now time for the party leaders to articulate a unifying vision for Canada and to pull a widely divergent set of issues into a coherent agenda upon which voters can make a decision on October 19.
Love it. Many regions and sub regions for the 69% of people which will never vote for Harper. Which way will they go. Looks like Trudeau has the edge as of today.
ReplyDeleteCheer, chima