Posts

Our Closing Argument

-
This post is offered by John Brewin and Nils Engell. Nils is a recent graduate from Trent University and a member of the extended Brewin clan for which he has all the necessary qualifications including having a passion for elections, including the current U.S. campaign and polls relating thereto. Finally we can say it: tomorrow is Election Day in the U.S.  None of these three outcomes should be a surprise: Based on a review of all available data we have been able to review, they boil down to: The actual results reflect the polls and in fact will be very close. Harris wins comfortably, even a landslide, or Trump wins comfortably.  We may well know or have a good idea who is going to win by midnight tomorrow night, or the result, in the sense of who will be elected President, won’t be confirmed for days, weeks or months, if ever. Invariably the polls are “wrong” in that they aren’t bang on the final voting result. The national polls especially often don’t tell us who wins power, the posi
3 comments
Read more

U.S. Election Breaking Democratic?

-
This post is written and prepared by John Brewin and Nils Engell. Nils is a recent graduate from Trent University and a member of the extended Brewin clan to which he has met all the necessary qualifications including having a passion for elections, including the current U.S. campaign and polls relating thereto. Welcome Nils. Conventional wisdom and many of the polls suggest that the U.S. election is too close to call.  Observers of elections will attest that often elections that seem close will occasionally in the last few weeks break decisively one way or the other.  A look at the data and at history suggests this may will be one of those late-breaking elections   Starting with the polls. Virtually all the polls since the debate and the weeks before that nationally and in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan show Kamala Harris ahead. The way the Electoral College is structured Harris can win the election with the aforementioned rust belt states assuming she wins the safe blue states.
Post a Comment
Read more

Kamala-mania!

-
Given polarization in the U.S. (and elsewhere, including Canada), it's doubtful the enthusiasm for Harris as the presumptive nominee will grow into a full-blown mania. But recent polls suggest she could win by a comfortable margin. Polls of national voting intentions as of today give Harris a 2.8% point lead i.e. at least even with Trump; this reflects a swing to the Democratic ticket at around 6% points since Biden withdrew from the ticket. This is compared to a deficit of 3.5% last week when Harris stepped forward as a presidential candidate. Of the top ranked polls taken since the day of her first rally in Milwaukee (July 23), only one has Trump still ahead nationally. Two are tied and the rest show Harris in the lead by an average of 1.6% points. The question now is whether the race will stay this way through to November 5 or will Harris’ momentum continue to build a strong lead or will Trump and other factors see her sink back to losing numbers? Pessimists, even those who love
Post a Comment
Read more

"Biden Leads!"

-
I usually begin these posts with a review of the current polls. Get ready for something different. I want to share a story from U.S. Presidential history to help us understand this political moment – four months before a crucial election. My take on today’s polls will follow this story. I have been re-reading David McCullough's biography of President Harry Truman, especially the part describing his surprising win in 1948. It’s a useful comparison to President Joe Biden’s situation. In June 1948 Truman was almost universally expected to lose in November that year. The unassuming Truman succeeded FDR at FDR’s death a few months after their inauguration. Truman’s first period as President was politically tough. He was compared negatively to the great Roosevelt. The immediate postwar period was difficult. In the 1946 off-year congressional elections, the GOP swept both Houses of Congress and seemed heading to a certain victory in the race for President in 1948. The Republicans had give
Post a Comment
Read more

My Take on the U.S. Election (so far)

-
As of May 8, 2024, the race is effectively tied, measured by voting intention. The best “average of polls”, or more precisely the “aggregate” of national polls  has Trump at 41.5%, Biden 40.4% and Kennedy at 10.2%. The key battleground states, the ones that will determine who wins the Electoral College and the Presidency are also, within the margin of error, tied or are very close. The polls show that on the issues, particularly the economy and cost-of-living, usually the most important bellwether indicators of how folks will vote in the end, Trump is substantially ahead. Biden is “only” ahead on abortion/choice and health care.That may be enough. Since Roe vs. Wade was overturned by the Supreme Court of the United States in 2022, the Democrats have outperformed their polling numbers in every special (by-election) or general election. This has been attributed to a dramatic upswing amongst pro-choice voters and their turning away from GOP candidates. For decades conventional wisdom has
Post a Comment
Read more

Should Biden Step Aside?

-
NY Times writer Ezra Klein recently posted a powerful episode on his podcast called Democrats Have a Better Option than Biden . He makes a strong case that Biden should step aside and require the Democratic convention in August select someone else to run against Trump. Faced with major pushback this week Klein has himself pushed back. Klein argues that it is not that Biden is too old to be President but that he is too old to be the candidate; that there is a very serious chance he won’t beat Trump. He asks us to compare Biden’s YouTube appearance in 2020 and today to convince ourselves that crucial voters have already begun making the judgement that he is too old, fair or not, and Klein believes those who have observed Biden in action over the past four years including in recent months, that Biden in office is fit, decisive and competent. Klein says however that Biden is unable to present himself persuasively that he is in fact fit for office. There is a very serious risk that this wi
1 comment
Read more

Seeking Social Democracy

-
Image
Facebook prevents me from sharing Jonathan Sas' excellent Toronto Star op-ed about Ed Broadbent's values and ideals. So, I'm sharing it this way. Click on the next sentence for the link. If you can do only one thing today to celebrate Ed's service to Canada, please read it. Today we grieve and remember together. Tomorrow we get back to work. Please consider a donation to the Broadbent Democracy Fund . Pat and I are supporters, and hope you'll contribute too.
Post a Comment
Read more