"Biden Leads!"

I usually begin these posts with a review of the current polls. Get ready for something different. I want to share a story from U.S. Presidential history to help us understand this political moment – four months before a crucial election. My take on today’s polls will follow this story.

I have been re-reading David McCullough's biography of President Harry Truman, especially the part describing his surprising win in 1948. It’s a useful comparison to President Joe Biden’s situation.

In June 1948 Truman was almost universally expected to lose in November that year. The unassuming Truman succeeded FDR at FDR’s death a few months after their inauguration.

Truman’s first period as President was politically tough. He was compared negatively to the great Roosevelt. The immediate postwar period was difficult. In the 1946 off-year congressional elections, the GOP swept both Houses of Congress and seemed heading to a certain victory in the race for President in 1948. The Republicans had given FDR very serious challenges for his third and fourth bids for office in 1940 and 1944. It seemed time for a change.

At the summer conventions in 1948, the GOP nominated their previous candidate Tom Dewey, Governor of New York, without undue controversy. He had no obvious warts, was relatively moderate, had been a competent governor and the establishment liked him.

On the other hand, there was a major move on the eve of the Democratic convention to replace Truman with Dwight Eisenhower, the popular wartime Commander of the Allied armies that defeated Hitler in 1945. Eisenhower refused a possible nomination and announced he would not accept a draft. If he’d agreed the dominant view was he would be nominated unanimously and Truman’s political career would be over.

Truman was in the end chosen, in the absence of any other viable choice. He was deemed even by his own supporters and few fans as a sure loser. During the convention and in its immediate aftermath, the South, which had traditionally been solidly Democratic, broke away and formed a segregationist party designed to win Southern states. The move was partly successful. Progressive forces within the party, unhappy with Truman and the big city “bosses'’ also split off, running a previous Vice-President, Henry Wallace, as a third party candidate.

Truman ran a spirited whistle stop populist campaign but 10 days before the election he was still 8% points behind. Polled by Newsweek 50 pundits voted anonymously that Dewey would win. Most newspapers across the country supported Dewey to the point that in the wee hours of Election Day the Chicago Tribune published and distributed its soon to be famous first edition with the bold headline: “Dewey Wins!”

But, as the results rolled in, it became evident that Truman had won four more years in the White House. The whistle stops had connected him to the people. Campaigns matter.

Today Biden may be personally unpopular with a significant segment of voters and his standing on some key issues is well below that of Donald Trump. Despite that, and for obvious reasons, Biden is effectively even with Trump.

Last Thursday, Biden jumped into a 0.1% point lead -- 40.6% to 40.5% for Trump according to the 538 site (which aggregates current polls rated for their professional independence and track record). This change in the polls comes after months of Trump leading nationally. Today "Biden leads!” He has jumped to 0.3% point (Biden 40.7% to 40.4% reporting they would vote for Trump).

The race is technically and effectively tied.

In the states that matter, those which would give Biden the 270 electoral college votes he needs to win the polling aggregates today are:

Michigan: Biden (+0.6%)  42.0%; Trump 41.4%; 

Wisconsin: Biden (+0.4%) 41.6%; Trump 41.2%;

Pennsylvania: Biden (- 0.2%) 42.1%; Trump 42.3%;

And, of course, these numbers are current voting intentions: how would you vote if the election were held today? A lot can happen between now and voting day.

Because of the intense polarization of U.S. politics, a high percentage of the electorate have already firmly made up their minds. Because of the tightness of the race, however, there is a significant group of voters who will likely determine the result. Many are cross-pressured. They don’t like either candidate, or that is how they respond when asked. Some voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020 and are now torn. They generally are the least well-informed among the electorate. They are hard to reach.

And much is happening that can swing the result:

• The debates, first of which is next week June 27;
• The conventions in the summer;
• The health of the two candidates;
• The campaigns themselves (the Democrats plausibly argue they have the edge on the ground and in money for advertising in key states);
• Voting history and fundamentals, especially in the key states;
• Voters perceptions of the quality of the two candidates, including in the important demographic group such as young people and minorities;
• The ballot question (change vs. character);
• Trump’s “legal” challenges including sentencing decisions;
• Something completely new and unpredictable.

More than four months until November 5th -- Election Day -- and it ain’t over yet!

Postscript: July 4 is Election Day in the United Kingdom. For weeks now the Labour has had a huge lead. Each day the governing Conservative lose ground and are now below 20% of the vote. Farage’s Reform is edging close to, or even ahead, in the national popular vote. At this rate Labour will have a huge majority. They are already measuring Downing Street for curtains!

And in Canada on Monday June 24th, the federal by-election takes place in the riding of Toronto-St. Pauls. Don’t be surprised if the Conservatives win it. This seat has been Liberal for decades, including the Michael Ignatieff disaster of 2011 when the Liberals were reduced to 34 seats across the whole country – we in the NDP refer to that election as the Jack Layton election, a joyful memory. The current riding is one of the wealthiest in Canada.

Andrew Brewin ran in the old St. Paul’s for the CCF three times – in 1945, 1949 and 1953. Each time he came third and lost his deposit. A previously unpublished fact is that, on the third time, I won my zone as a 16-year old zone captain. Maple Leaf Gardens, where the Leafs won the Stanley Cup six years earlier, was in my zone.