Committed to Building a Better Canada

John Brewin and Nils Engell have collaborated on this post. Nils is a recent graduate from Trent University and a member of the extended Brewin clan.

The next federal election is set for April 28—a short four and a half weeks away.

The Liberal Party of Canada is now favoured to win a majority or strong minority government. The Conservatives are rated as having only a 1% chance of electing a government. As you probably know, it wasn’t that way just three months ago.

 

The national polls are almost unanimous in placing the Liberals ahead in current voting intentions. At this point it doesn’t seem likely that will change much, although it would not be a surprise if they showed a even stronger edge for the government.

In January the Liberals were below 20% in the polls and were sinking slowly towards third party status in Parliament. Their recovery began the moment Trudeau announced he was going to resign. Mark Carney then announced he would run for the post of Liberal leader and the rising tide started to gather momentum.

Following U.S. President Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20, he began cranking up his relentless campaign against Canada. By February the Liberals were marginally ahead. The core election issue became Trump’s attack on Canadian sovereignty.

On the other side of the street, Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre was having a hard time adjusting to these new realities. Relatively unknown, Poilievre played to his convoy base in Alberta. Urban Canada didn’t (and still doesn't) like him. He seemed vulnerable to a Liberal counter-attack and has not yet clearly repositioned himself and the Conservatives. We’ll have to see how he campaigns. The campaign’s early polling shows the Liberals have already pulled a decisive chunk of votes from the Conservatives. Getting the most seats won’t be enough for Poilievre. None of the other parties in Parliament would support a Conservative minority government. Poilievre has to get a majority or the Conservatives are back in opposition. At anything like current polling levels he won’t get close.

This Liberal swing appears also to be drawing significant votes from the NDP. The party is vulnerable to the fate of all third partners in minority governments. Pre-election polling has Jagmeet Singh struggling to keep party status (at least 12 seats) in the House of Commons.

So, two questions to keep in mind as the campaign unfolds:

1. Can the Liberals stay no worse than even with the Conservatives in the national polls? They are guaranteed at least a minority government if they can;

2. Can the NDP get back to a level that will produce a minimum of 12 seats, at least 12-14% or so?

The polls are at best only a guide. As we have learned, they are occasionally critically wrong. Sometimes they are broadly correct as in the recent U.S. election. The polls said it was close and it was, but they were not precise. The difference was crucial in the Electoral College. In the recent Ontario election the differences between the polls and the results in the popular vote were basically correct, but wrong on seats. The difference between the final polls and the actual vote made no difference to the party profile in the House. Progressive Conservatives form a majority government. The NDP is the Official Opposition with the Liberals as the third party (though now with official party status.)

Out of 13 polls reported in the polling site Canada 338, since Carney’s swearing in as Prime Minister on March 14th, the Liberals are ahead in every poll except one, and that was an outlier.The NDP has dropped to about 11%. In the last election, the Liberals won 157 seats from 33.12% of the national vote with the CPC winning 121 seats with 34.34% of the votes. The NDP won 16% of the vote and 24 seats.

In 2021 the Conservatives piled up big majorities in Alberta (and other conservative parts of the country) that didn't make a difference in seat counts in our "first past the post" system. If the final results are similar to current voting intentions the Liberals will win a comfortable majority.

A lot can happen during the campaign period, especially in this volatile atmosphere and with new-to-the-electorate leaders. How Donald Trump and his continuing assault against Canada will play out during the campaign is completely unpredictable. He may back off completely. He may ramp up tariffs across the board and renew threats to invade Canada to control our resources. 

It is only guesswork how our political leaders would respond. Carney is something of a wild card. If he is able to run a reasonably solid campaign, his numbers are likely to improve even from their current high level. On the other hand, Carney is untested as a retail politician. Bland may be exactly what voters want in this tumultuous time.

The Conservative Party's 20% point lead over the Liberals seemed insurmountable at the start of the year. While Poilievre’s populist pugnacity was a strength in the face of a deeply unpopular Prime Minister, it has now become his biggest weakness as he shows himself unable to adapt to the rapidly changing circumstances.

In the 1988 election Brian Mulroney’s Conservatives offered integration into the United States’ economy through “free trade”. Close to forty years later, Trump has ripped up the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and its successor, the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). This move is about reorganizing our economy. Trump has given us no choice but to build stronger economic relations with other countries. It is also an opportunity to make Canada better, meaning fairer in every way.

The challenge is to make this election about the vision of Canada that Parliament should serve. Whatever they might say, Conservatives are fundamentally committed to an integrated economy and social system with the U.S. Without the NDP as part of the power dynamic in Parliament, the Liberals are more likely to govern from the right. A minority government creates the balance necessary to serve the interests of all Canadians across a broad political, social and economic spectrum.

Now is the time to imagine “a better Canada”, to quote David Crombie at the Elbows Up rally in Toronto earlier this week. A Canada that includes everyone. A more egalitarian Canada in which equality, justice and public service form our core values. And a Parliament composed of members committed to this vision.

On April 28, Canada needs voters to show up with the determination to make it a reality.