My Take on the U.S. Election (so far)

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As of May 8, 2024, the race is effectively tied, measured by voting intention. The best “average of polls”, or more precisely the “aggregate” of national polls has Trump at 41.5%, Biden 40.4% and Kennedy at 10.2%. The key battleground states, the ones that will determine who wins the Electoral College and the Presidency are also, within the margin of error, tied or are very close.


The polls show that on the issues, particularly the economy and cost-of-living, usually the most important bellwether indicators of how folks will vote in the end, Trump is substantially ahead. Biden is “only” ahead on abortion/choice and health care.That may be enough. Since Roe vs. Wade was overturned by the Supreme Court of the United States in 2022, the Democrats have outperformed their polling numbers in every special (by-election) or general election. This has been attributed to a dramatic upswing amongst pro-choice voters and their turning away from GOP candidates.


For decades conventional wisdom has been that elections turn on economic issues. James Carville, Bill Clinton’s campaign manager in 1992, coined the campaign slogan “It’s the economy, stupid”. Clinton won and the slogan has been believed ever since. It still drives pundits today.


They may be wrong. Even though Biden is behind in handling the economy, Biden and Trump are tied on total votes at this stage. So Biden has people ready to vote for him even though they have a low opinion of his economic leader. 


Democrats should use donations lead to correct the public’s faulty view of the state of the economy and Biden’s contribution to its success. This move might bump up his overall standing. Especially in the key battlegrounds. 


The background questions in the polls show while Biden may be unpopular he is not as unpopular as Trump is. Significantly more voters have a less favourable view of Trump than Biden and they are more intense in their dislike. Furthermore Biden is simply liked and gets higher grades for engendering trust and a belief in his trustworthiness.


Perhaps at the end of the day people want a President who they like better and can trust to do the job. If that is the ballot question for the swing voters, Biden wins. That is why it is the difference or gap between Biden’s unfavourable numbers may be the crucial ones in this election.


It is noteworthy that a greater number of the swing voters are Democrats or former Biden voters who may be easier to bring home in the end than former Republicans will be: young voters, Black voters and Hispanics, people who intensely dislike Trump. Trump's court appearances and legal issues might just work away on the double-haters, the people who don’t want to vote for either but in the end just do not want Trump having a second round as President, who don’t like the continuing drama. It keeps the character issue up front to Trump’s apparent disadvantage. 

 

Thanks to Roy Norton (who sent me a copy of Atlantic writer Tim Alberta’s book about American Evangelicals’ struggles with the MAGA/Trump efforts to turn the Evangelical movement into a political weapon), it now is clear to me that these efforts are a double-edged sword. Trump’s character flaws may be poorly understood by evangelicals because the distortions of the right-wing media and Trump’s propensity to lie all the time about everything. But, according to Alberta, there is an internal pushback against the takeover gathering steam within the Evangelical movement. It may be exacerbated by the focus on this character brought about by his “legal” troubles. Judging from the polls and the primary votes there is roughly 29% of Republicans persistently rejecting Trump. If half of those vote for Biden or vote for someone other than Trump, Biden will be re-elected.


History shows that sometimes boring and quiet is good in a leader. They don’t all have to be charismatic. This may well be the mood of a crucial group of Americans. Trump is associated with too much chaos. 


The Democratic consultant Simon Rosenberg who accurately predicted there would be no “red (GOP) wave” in 2022 has argued that as voters go through the various stages of an election they will move to Biden: first is as an adult living in the U.S. The swing voters are not comparing the candidates. Then they begin thinking like a registered voter, then as a likely voter, then on the edge of the election and then in the voting booth. Where voters are cross -pressured i.e.have to choose their closest friend’s favourite versus someone like Trump, the factors that help them make up their vote may vary. In this election that may push them away from issues that help them personally to a choice that seems “right”. 


The choice issue has the potential of being a game changer. For many folks it has been turn out and vote-determinative favouring the Democrats.

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