Kamala-mania!

Given polarization in the U.S. (and elsewhere, including Canada), it's doubtful the enthusiasm for Harris as the presumptive nominee will grow into a full-blown mania. But recent polls suggest she could win by a comfortable margin.

Polls of national voting intentions as of today give Harris a 2.8% point lead i.e. at least even with Trump; this reflects a swing to the Democratic ticket at around 6% points since Biden withdrew from the ticket. This is compared to a deficit of 3.5% last week when Harris stepped forward as a presidential candidate.

Of the top ranked polls taken since the day of her first rally in Milwaukee (July 23), only one has Trump still ahead nationally. Two are tied and the rest show Harris in the lead by an average of 1.6% points. The question now is whether the race will stay this way through to November 5 or will Harris’ momentum continue to build a strong lead or will Trump and other factors see her sink back to losing numbers?

Pessimists, even those who love Harris, expect deep racial and sexist attitudes to prevail, stoked by a well financed and ruthless Trump campaign. My sense is that this factor cuts both ways and on balance her reflection of the country’s countervailing commitment to diversity will result in a gain for Harris or at least no worse than a wash.

So too with advertising of which there will be a flood from both sides. They will likely cancel each out. Both sides are trying to work their wiles on a highly polarized electorate, Only a fraction of the likely voters will be evenly listening, having long ago made up their minds and viewing the ads through their own lenses.

At a minimum it will be a very close election. In that case organization or Get Out the Vote (GOTV) will be decisive. The Democrats are likely to be better at grass roots organizing than the Republicans and Trump. Organization has won a number of elections for the Democrats in the last couple of years and is poised to do so again. Democrats usually do a few percentage points better than the public polls indicate because of what's called the Trump negative -- the features of his candidacy that work against him as opposed to what makes him attractive.

The states Harris has to win are demographically leaning and historically Democratic. Trump is deeply unpopular except with his base, which could leak votes over the next three months as reality sets in.

Beyond that is the possibility, perhaps even likely that Harris will break through into a dramatic and comfortable lead. She is already demonstrating a star quality. She elicits excitement in how she speaks and carries herself as a candidate.

Harris looks like a President. She is strong, firm, cheerful and clear. And she will prosecute the case against Trump and Vance with surgical precision. Trump and Vance give her team new material every day.

Focus groups and polling support the thesis that it was Biden’s age and deteriorating communication skills that weighed him down. Harris simply isn’t burdened with that issue. Now it’s Trump who is. He’s old, damaged, with wounds that are largely self-inflicted. His legal troubles will continue this fall, including with his sentencing. His health may become an issue. Having made age an issue, the Republicans will have to wear it as the voters have been conditioned to see age as a liability.

Events in the final months tend to favour Harris. She picks her VP in the next few days. Then comes the Democratic convention with a polling “bounce” if past conventions are any guide. A debate. An array of strong surrogates. A sense of joy and fun. A positive look into the future from a candidate who embodies this idea confronting someone who doesn’t. A more promising outlook than what we could imagine only a month ago.

This U.S. election is shaping up to be one of the most exciting and consequential of my lifetime.