Our Closing Argument

This post is offered by John Brewin and Nils Engell. Nils is a recent graduate from Trent University and a member of the extended Brewin clan for which he has all the necessary qualifications including having a passion for elections, including the current U.S. campaign and polls relating thereto.

Finally we can say it: tomorrow is Election Day in the U.S. 

None of these three outcomes should be a surprise: Based on a review of all available data we have been able to review, they boil down to:

1. The actual results reflect the polls and in fact will be very close.

2. Harris wins comfortably, even a landslide, or

3. Trump wins comfortably. 

We may well know or have a good idea who is going to win by midnight tomorrow night, or the result, in the sense of who will be elected President, won’t be confirmed for days, weeks or months, if ever.

Invariably the polls are “wrong” in that they aren’t bang on the final voting result. The national polls especially often don’t tell us who wins power, the position at issue, simply because they can't be that precise. A few percentage points either way can make all the difference on that central question.

The polls in the key states are all over the place although the averages show tight races. The state averages vary according to which polls are included in the averages or what weight is given to particular polls or demographic subgroups in each independent well-rated poll. In this cycle the three Blue Wall states (Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania) are usually within the margin of error i.e. either side could win. Harris usually is reported as having a very slight lead based on voting intentions. Polling analysts vary on which state is most vulnerable to a Trump victory.

Our hunch is that Kamala Harris will win surprisingly comfortably, though it is no sure thing.

 

The arguments that have led us to this conclusion are these:

1. Harris has the best organization to get out the vote.

2. Harris is better placed to win the undecideds. She has significant leads over Trump on favourability ratings and on the decisive issue of women’s health. 

3. Trump is a flawed candidate. Harris has demonstrated that she is a good to excellent candidate.

4. The Democrats have a slightly bigger base that the Republicans do, especially with Trump as their candidate.

There is evidence that the electorate is moving towards Harris in the final stages of the campaign.

The highly regarded Des Moines Register/Ann Seltzer poll of Iowa released on Saturday  based on interviews taken last week has Harris ahead by four points in Iowa. This poll seems to have picked up the last minute shift to Harris driven in large part by voters charged up by the issue of women’s reproductive health care rights. Some analyses of early voting reinforce this view. The Selzer poll is considered one of if not the most accurate polls in the country. It has often been a canary in the coal mine of public opinion, previewing major shifts in late deciding voters not picked up by other pollsters. Trump won Iowa by 8% in 2020 while narrowly losing the election. If we even take the lower end of the margin of error in this poll it shows a tied race. This would signal a massive loss of support for Trump which would almost certainly not be unique to Iowa. 

So the first viable prediction is the results could be unbearably close. Georgia is said to be the first to be declared, possibly as early as 8 p.m. Eastern time. If Harris wins Georgia she will likely win the whole thing. If she loses, it could be a nailbiter, though not necessarily so. North Carolina will also likely have faster results than other key states as its polls will be closing at 7:30 pm Eastern. North Carolina has remained elusive to Democrats in recent presidential elections, Trump narrowly held onto it by 1.2% in 2020. Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona are expected to take longer to count votes. Much will also depend on the margins. If the margins are as razor thin as the polling averages suggest it could take days before a winner is called.

Georgia may show that Harris is holding most of Biden’s 2020 vote and perhaps even gaining in the suburbs especially among women college-educated voters. That pattern would likely be duplicated elsewhere and be a sign that Harris’ Get Out The Vote organizational edge matters, a very good sign for other crucial states.

Like flipped coins, elections usually don’t finish on their edge. One side or the other has a reasonably comfortable edge. The three recent provincial elections in Canada seemed too close to call. In the end all three ended up electing stable majority governments. Even the close result in B.C. produced a government that will likely last a full term if, as is likely, Eby can make a long-term deal with the two Green M.L.As.

But which candidate in the U.S. is most likely to win reasonably comfortably? Perhaps no one will be comfortable in the Trump era. The two sides have huge blocks of voters, relatively evenly matched around 48% each. Every twitch on one side or the other is felt. Either or both sides can easily be plunged into despair or lifted to the warm fuzzies of optimism. Then they slide back to “it’s too close to call”. That‘s the reality of this election. If Yogi Berra was around he’d say, we won’t know who's going to win, until we know who’s won.

Each day of this final week of the U.S. election has had a different feel about it probably depending on what one last reads or listens to. As we do a final edit of this post, we are in a state of cautious optimism drawn partly by experience, hope and a refusal to believe that the United States as we have come to know it could elect the flawed disaster that is Trump, 

Our bet is that this election is now breaking for Kamala Harris. Polling of those who have already voted reinforces this observation. Trump is stumbling to the finish line. His dark and violent comments have dominated the news coverage in the last two weeks and his team is growing concerned with his inability to deliver a coherent closing message. Reports of his rallies are noting Trump himself has lost energy, his rallies are not full and those who do attend begin leaving soon after he starts speaking. This may be symbolic of his campaign - even his base is getting tired of him.

On the other hand Harris is finishing strong with a very well received closing speech and a bevy of positive polls. While we can’t be certain until the votes are all counted, the Harris campaign is looking focused and ready to win.