A New Polling Season

Ontario goes to the polls in less than 125 days -- on June 2nd. A new polling season has begun in earnest.

Pollsters are already reporting wildly different current voting intentions. In mid-January polls, Angus Reid had the NDP at 36%, PCs at 33% and the Liberals at 19%. Innovative Research placed the Liberals at 36%, the PCs 35% and the NDP at 22%. EKOS reported PCs 35%, NDP 27%, Liberal 26%. The latest poll from a new firm in the field, Counsel Public Affairs, has the PCs at 35%, NDP 31% and OLP 24%. In 2018, the last election, the PCs won a majority with 40% of the vote across Ontario. The NDP won Official Opposition status with 40 seats and 34% of the total vote. The Liberals fell from government to only seven seats in the Legislature, losing party status and gaining only 20% of the vote.

In the past six months Premier Doug Ford’s approval rating has noticeably declined, dropping from the mid 40s to the low 30s. The PC share of voting intentions has declined at the same rate. This likely reflects the public perception of Ford’s handling of COVID in recent months and his propensity for confusing voters by changing direction on restrictions almost daily. Many seem ready to blame Ford for this protracted crisis and his mismanagement of it The focus may move elsewhere, though the results of last year's Nova Scotia election is one small bit of evidence to the contrary. In that election, a well-ensconced Liberal government suddenly lost altitude during the campaign and the Progressive Conservatives came from behind to unseat the government. Over the years, we have seen that phenomenon upset expectations. This could be one of those elections.

Ford’s electoral challenge is to win back an additional five percentage points to get him to 40%. Last time there was a sense that while small c-Progressive Conservatives didn’t like Ford much, they felt that “progressive” conservatives in his team could manage him. Will that repeat itself or will he continue to bleed support as COVID continues?

The real action this time, as often in the past, is in a big pool of voters who could go to either NDP or Liberal. Counsel polling has found that as many as 25-30% in each party say they would vote for the other party if that was necessary to get rid of Ford. That pool represents five to 10% points, enough to determine the winner of the election.

How will those potential swing voters determine their choice? They start off with an initial preference as shown in the current polls. Neither Andrea Horwath or Steven Del Duca has a strong image -- good or bad. The impression they make in the first weeks of the campaign will be important. Horwath did well last time. Can she do it again? What impression will Del Duca make? Will these voters be looking for a Premier who will be active or one who is safe? Will one or the other prove irritating to the swing voters of the other party or attractive enough to win them over despite their initial predilection? How important are key issues in determining which choice to make to get rid of Ford? 

What is the process voters have used to make a ballot decision? They don’t look to past election results or the polls to assess who is best positioned to beat Ford. They seem to move in the direction of one party much like a flock of sparrows flying in one way or the other with no apparent communication between them. Knocking on doors in many elections, I have heard voters explain their reaction to a campaign in exactly the same terms as their neighbours five blocks away, although there was no way they were in communication with each other. How does that happen? It appears to be a phenomenon greater than what can be generated through mainstream or even social media coverage of the election.

My observation is that the election will turn on the swing voters’ reaction to the crises faced by Ontario and the wider world. So the question is: will the voters look for a leader who takes hold of the issues and holds out hope of decisive action for a just and secure future, or do they want calm, steadiness and basic competence?

There is a lot of anger, fear and real confusion among voters. I'm also sensing an undercurrent of hope and new resolve. These are potent emotions. As this new polling season begins, these collective feelings have ignited unpredictable dynamics. Fasten your seatbelts!