Speculating on the U.S. Presidential Election

At this start of this year, I posted my expectations for the 2020 U.S. Presidential election. I suggested Joe Biden would likely emerge as the Democratic nominee and the outcome would probably be very close. Any predictions made on January 1 were subject to a number of contingencies, I wrote, including the possibility that “some cataclysmic event occurs that changes everything”.

Turns out that these conventional calls were on the mark, at least as of today. And even though I could never have predicted a pandemic, a cataclysmic event has occurred. Its electoral consequences are a matter of total speculation.

So, let’s speculate.

It's tempting to think the election will be a simple referendum on Trump. Is he to blame or can he offload the blame onto Biden, the Democrats, the Governors, China, the WHO, the media or even Dr. Fauci?

The early signs are that Americans are less than satisfied with the job Trump is doing. His overall approval ratings are more or less where they were before the pandemic erupted, even though leaders usually experience a bump in popularity during a crisis.

The blame game will likely be wrestled to a draw. The real ballot question will be: do the voters want four more years of Trump or not? Do they see themselves moving forward with Biden or with Trump? Which candidate will provide the kind of leadership they want through the highly unpredictable recovery period?

The United States is two nations, two sharply different political and social cultures. It has been that way since the founding of a country half of which was built on slavery and the other half on an idealized version of liberal democracy. The losers in the Civil War have maintained the culture of the slave-owning society into modern times. Many were and are in varying degrees racist, anti-democratic, militaristic and authoritarian. Most adhere to a distorted fundamentalist version of Christianity that helps sustain their worldview. Many more came to see themselves as victims of the “elites”. Their politics are financed by the billionaire class and they are held together by their own news networks and social media. 

Since the end of the Civil War when the emancipated slaves and their descendants were “free”, the minority learned sophisticated and ruthless means of suppressing the newly-freed slaves and their descendants’ right to vote or to see that their votes do not count equally in the election of their governments. In Trump the other nation found the perfect candidate, one who defied in every respect the image the majority had built up from the days of George Washington of what a President should be and how they should conduct themselves in office.

Trump’s contrarian approach may have been a very clever tactic. More likely it simply was a product of his life story. His narcissism and self-centredness comes naturally to him.

I had a friend who knew Ed Mirvish, the owner of Honest Ed’s in Toronto. He told me Mirvish would prepare his weekly full-page ads for the Toronto newspapers by laying out the polished ads of his competitors Eaton’s and Simpson’s high-end department stores. He would simply do the opposite of what they did. Where they would have swanky furniture, Mirvish would feature a string of bloomers on a line. Where they offered a return policy, Mirvish told customers that once the merchandise was paid for it was theirs. There would be no refunds or returns accepted. Honest Ed’s was a stunning merchandizing success. 

I have seen Trump employing the same strategy from the outset of his Presidential campaign and throughout his Presidency. This is one of the reasons why the cultural descendants of those who lost the Civil War love him. He defies every component of conventional wisdom. His followers have been persuaded conventional wisdom is the source of their problems, a threat to their security. They will follow him anywhere, even over the cliff of a pandemic. Safe distancing from Trump is not for them.

In these circumstances, no matter how deeply the virus bites, the election will turn on whether the Democrats can offset voter suppression with impassioned turnout in key states and key sections of the electorate. This includes growing communities of African-Americans, Hispanics, young people, suburban college educated women and white working class voters who in 2016 left their usual home in the Democratic party for Trump. 

The anti-conventional portrait Trump has painted of himself may defeat him in the end. Consider how he has conducted himself in office. Are his insults, lies, and bullying enough to push a small but decisive number of voters to go for Biden? Will Trump obvious neglect or attack on the key elements of the Democratic party so infuriate these groups that they will turn out in record numbers despite the effort to suppress their vote? Will the turbulence and corruption of the Trump years continue to plague the United States as it recovers from COVID-19, or will voters choose an antidote?

Having come close to death, the liberal democratic vision of America will survive -- perhaps even enriched by social democracy as in the past. That's my prediction. It is also my hope.