Setting the Stage for 2020
It's 2020 – another election year! Looming large is the U.S. Presidential Election. BC voters are likely to go the polls this year too. This is the third day of my retirement from the practice of law after nearly 54 years. While I'm building a new routine, there is one habit that will not change: obsessing over the polls.
During the holiday season, I noticed that liberal and progressive Americans (and their Canadian friends) are genuinely pessimistic about their ability to defeat Trump. They're convinced that Trump will triumph in November. He will, once again, bamboozle a sufficient number of voters to steal another win. They believe none of the Democratic candidates will be able to head him off. They can't imagine that Democrats will nominate the candidate least likely to defeat him.
At the start of this year, we have to reassure them that all manner of things can happen between now and November 3: removal from office by the Senate (highly unlikely), new and continuing revelations about Trump that further erode his support, an economic downturn, Trump quits or otherwise is no longer in office by Labour Day, the Republicans actually find the real Jesus, some cataclysmic event occurs that changes everything.
Elections are never predictable.
The best information continues to come from good pollsters. However, polling only reveals the present intentions of a sample of voters. The margin of error is usually large enough that it alone makes it impossible to tell who will win the Electoral College -- even if no one changes their mind between now and the election. Quite a few voters, even in this polarized electorate, will likely change their minds. Getting out the vote really matters in key states. Interference from Russians and U.S. billionaires can change the result. Human error and human genius can also play crucial roles.
That said, if today is the starting point, Trump begins seriously behind by almost every marker. He won very narrowly last time, and has certainly lost some of his 2016 supporters -- especially key groups such as suburban Republican and independent women. Sixty-seven per cent of women voters say they won’t vote for Trump in November. The demographics continue to shift away from him. See the 2018 congressional elections in which the Democrats got 10 million more votes that the Republicans.
A recent poll published by NBC and the Wall Street Journal reported that forty-six per cent of the electorate are certain they will vote against Trump regardless of the Democratic nominee. Seventeen per cent say they will wait to hear who the Democrats nominate. Thirty-four per cent say that they are certain they will vote for Trump.
The Democratic nominee will have to make a difficult strategic decision: focus the “ballot question” on Trump's leadership or on critical social, economic and environmental issues.
Who will the Democrats chose? That may be decided by which ballot question the primary voters rally around. Right now Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg are the frontrunners. Biden has to be favoured as the most likely winner at this stage in the process.
Who should Democrats vote for? It won't surprise you that I'm urging my American friends to vote for whomever they think will make the best President. In response to this question, my choice is Elizabeth Warren. I know many U.S. progressives are deathly afraid she will labelled a “socialist” and scare off the conservative voters who intensely dislike Trump or the idea of a woman as President. My sense is that any one of the leading candidates will have to rise above a ton of negativity and they will have to deal with it in surprising and positive ways.
The first primary is Iowa on February 3rd. Just around the corner. In 2009, this was the moment that the world started paying attention to Barack Obama. Whoever emerges as the winner of this contest will take centre stage. With all of us on the edge of our seats, this decade's first major production of political theatre will begin.
In the weeks ahead, I'll write more about:
I'll try to post every couple of weeks or whenever inspired, and will look forward to your comments and an exchange of perspectives.
During the holiday season, I noticed that liberal and progressive Americans (and their Canadian friends) are genuinely pessimistic about their ability to defeat Trump. They're convinced that Trump will triumph in November. He will, once again, bamboozle a sufficient number of voters to steal another win. They believe none of the Democratic candidates will be able to head him off. They can't imagine that Democrats will nominate the candidate least likely to defeat him.
At the start of this year, we have to reassure them that all manner of things can happen between now and November 3: removal from office by the Senate (highly unlikely), new and continuing revelations about Trump that further erode his support, an economic downturn, Trump quits or otherwise is no longer in office by Labour Day, the Republicans actually find the real Jesus, some cataclysmic event occurs that changes everything.
Elections are never predictable.
The best information continues to come from good pollsters. However, polling only reveals the present intentions of a sample of voters. The margin of error is usually large enough that it alone makes it impossible to tell who will win the Electoral College -- even if no one changes their mind between now and the election. Quite a few voters, even in this polarized electorate, will likely change their minds. Getting out the vote really matters in key states. Interference from Russians and U.S. billionaires can change the result. Human error and human genius can also play crucial roles.
That said, if today is the starting point, Trump begins seriously behind by almost every marker. He won very narrowly last time, and has certainly lost some of his 2016 supporters -- especially key groups such as suburban Republican and independent women. Sixty-seven per cent of women voters say they won’t vote for Trump in November. The demographics continue to shift away from him. See the 2018 congressional elections in which the Democrats got 10 million more votes that the Republicans.
A recent poll published by NBC and the Wall Street Journal reported that forty-six per cent of the electorate are certain they will vote against Trump regardless of the Democratic nominee. Seventeen per cent say they will wait to hear who the Democrats nominate. Thirty-four per cent say that they are certain they will vote for Trump.
The Democratic nominee will have to make a difficult strategic decision: focus the “ballot question” on Trump's leadership or on critical social, economic and environmental issues.
Who will the Democrats chose? That may be decided by which ballot question the primary voters rally around. Right now Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg are the frontrunners. Biden has to be favoured as the most likely winner at this stage in the process.
Who should Democrats vote for? It won't surprise you that I'm urging my American friends to vote for whomever they think will make the best President. In response to this question, my choice is Elizabeth Warren. I know many U.S. progressives are deathly afraid she will labelled a “socialist” and scare off the conservative voters who intensely dislike Trump or the idea of a woman as President. My sense is that any one of the leading candidates will have to rise above a ton of negativity and they will have to deal with it in surprising and positive ways.
The first primary is Iowa on February 3rd. Just around the corner. In 2009, this was the moment that the world started paying attention to Barack Obama. Whoever emerges as the winner of this contest will take centre stage. With all of us on the edge of our seats, this decade's first major production of political theatre will begin.
In the weeks ahead, I'll write more about:
- how we are governed (could be better);
- the future of Canadian politics;
- the role, if any, of progressive religion in progressive politics;
- where civic values come from and how to nurture them (and what won’t work at all); and,
- more on the U.S. crisis.
I'll try to post every couple of weeks or whenever inspired, and will look forward to your comments and an exchange of perspectives.
Great start to 2020 John!
ReplyDeleteInteresting read, John. Regarding future blogs, would enjoy hearing your thoughts on the role of the public service in the context of today's political environment. Denise
ReplyDelete