Persuading and Pulling the New Democratic Vote

This is my 24th federal general election. Not much has changed over the years when you think of the theory behind electioneering: persuading prospective voters to cast their ballot for your party and getting them out to vote. Looking at the tools, most everything has changed. We still send out door-to-door canvassers with bags of leaflets and sign location forms and voters lists on clipboards. But we’re slow to come to grips with digital algorithms and social media, and their impact on public knowledge and opinion. And, with the electorate in a highly volatile mood, campaigns still matter.

Less than a week after the Prime Minister called the election, the state of the parties is entirely different from the start of the 2015 campaign. Then the NDP stood first, the Conservatives second, and the Liberals third. The Greens barely registered. The Conservative support was steady throughout the campaign ending where it started at 33% of the total vote. They won 99 seats out of 338 in the House of Commons. The Liberals charged their way up the mountain to a majority; the NDP dropped to 20% and 44 seats from its position as Official Opposition.

Today, at the end of the first week, the Conservatives are still polling at around 33-34% of the vote – a long way from a majority government. The NDP has already announced it will under no circumstances prop up a Conservative minority government. Unless the Greens have a death wish, there's no prospect the Conservatives will be able to form a coalition with them. It’s a majority or bust for Andrew Sheer. At this stage a majority government doesn’t seem likely, no matter how mild-mannered and reasonable the Conservative leader is programmed to sound during this campaign.

The remaining questions are:

·       Will the Liberals win a majority government or slip into a minority position?

·       Will the NDP collapse as some are predicting?

·       Will the Greens have their first big breakthrough at the federal level?

Over the course of the next few posts, I’ll look at each party’s prospects starting with the one I know best – the New Democrats.

Out the gate, the media buzz is that the NDP is in deep trouble and maybe collapsing. The Liberals and Greens would like that prediction to be true. Unduly low expectations at the start of a campaign, however, can help build a sense of momentum over the life of a campaign. Or at least that's what I've learned watching the CCF/NDP rise and fall and rise again in elections since I was nine.

There is some evidence supporting the benefits of low expectations in the public reaction to the Maclean’s/CityTV debate last Thursday. Without the Liberal Party leader, it appeared the three opposition leaders were vying for the job of top contender. To this end, the NDP’s Jagmeet Singh was widely viewed as the winner with his sharp and clear answers to the Moderator Paul Wells’ pointed questions.

Further, the polls are delivering a mixed picture of NDP support at odds with the media's narrative. A number of polls, including four of the last five published, show the NDP at 15% or higher -- the party’s traditional level of support. Others have the NDP less than 12%. That would put the party’s Parliamentary status at risk. Again, campaigns matter.

At 15% plus, the party would likely retain most of its seats outside Québec and possibly add a few. There are some signs of a slight uptick in this first week. It is, however, far too early to count on that. At that level there is a better chance of a minority or coalition government giving significant power to the NDP to keep the Liberals to their agenda.

Campaigns are increasingly unpredictable. It’s hard to see an ideological pattern. Voters thrash around trying to sort out how they feel about politicians and hot-button issues. The last two federal elections, for example, produced stunning surprises: Jack Layton’s “Orange Wave” in 2011 and Trudeau’s upsurge in 2015.

Singh’s win in Burnaby South has put him on the path to becoming an effective retail political campaigner at the federal level. Most leaders, including the revered Tommy Douglas, Ed Broadbent and Jack Layton, struggled in their first elections to connect with voters. Surviving the first one is key to becoming an asset to the party.

New Democrats should be proud they're giving Canadians the chance to make a bold choice in this election. A historic one, in fact. Jagmeet Singh brings the life experience, perspective and social democratic values desperately needed on the Canadian political scene today. He reflects Canada’s future while standing firmly in the party’s tradition. Despite the foo-fa-rah about the number of candidates on ballots, Jagmeet has attracted many outstanding candidates. One of them is my law colleague Mae Nam. She’s running in my father’s old riding, Beaches-East York, and has a serious shot at winning.

Broadly speaking, social democracy offers a crucial framework for dealing with the social, economic, and environmental crises swirling around us. It helps us focus on the common good at a time when private interests are tearing us apart and putting our collective security at risk. It steers us toward the core objective of equality and enables a coordinated approach to our biggest challenges, especially climate change.

In this 43^rd federal general election, it’s up to the New Democratic Party to persuade Canadians that the pursuit of this core objective will deliver the prosperity and security that matters most – the kind all of us can create together through good governance and strong public institutions. But even that won’t be enough unless the party can win new support and pull its vote in record numbers.

Next up: The Green Party of Canada.