Will Doug Ford Inevitably Win?

Most of the people I know think Doug Ford is likely to win the upcoming provincial election. But they’re not happy about it. The current evidence tells us that Ford is on the cusp of a victory but it’s not inevitable.
When the writ is dropped on Wednesday, the campaign will begin with the PCs hovering at 40% of the total vote – the historic magic number for winning a majority in the Ontario Legislature. 

The last three polls, all published today by reputable firms, have the PCs at 35%, 40% and 43% for an average of 39%. The Liberals are at 29%, 23% and 26% in these three polls – an average of 26%. The NDP stand at 29%, 30% and 26% for an average 28%, In 14 previous polls reported since Ford was elected to lead the PCs, the Conservatives averaged 43%, Liberals 27%, the NDP 24% and the rest 6%.

As the campaign gets underway, it's important to know what the threshold is for a majority when three parties are in the running.

Ontario has had a three party system since 1943. Majority governments have been elected in 16 of the 21 elections since then. In all but two of those majority elections, the majority party has gained more than 42% of the vote. An exception was the 2014 election when the Liberals won a majority with 39% of the total vote. The second was in 1990 when the NDP won a majority with 38%.

We’ve come to expect, therefore, that the leading party won’t win a majority if they get less than 40% of the vote.

If Ford falls short of this magic number, as the recent polls suggest he might, the other two parties don’t have to let him form a government. In our parliamentary system this is their right but also their responsibility on behalf of the majority of voters who did not choose the PCs. The opposition parties could form a coalition that creates a government with members from both parties, or a working arrangement of some kind with either Horwath or Wynne as premier supported by the other party. But it won’t include Ford who is an anathema to the constituents of the other parties.

So, this election begins with two questions: Is Ford’s lead real? Will the campaign have an affect on the results of these initial polls?

In recent years, we have learned the hard way that polls can be wrong – especially a single poll or even two or three polls. The average of a useful number of polls, however, would have to be out by five percentage points from their current levels for the PCs to slide into a minority position, down to around 38% or less.

Usually, the results at the end of campaign are very similar to the indicators at the beginning. But let's not forget that sometimes campaign swings are dramatic.

Trudeau went from third place in the polls to a majority government in 2015. Last year, Corbyn in Britain gained 10% during the campaign to reduce the Conservatives to a minority. New Zealand Labour’s Jacinda Ardern also gained 10% points during the campaign and emerged as Prime Minister.

At the start of this election, there are signs that the political situation is unstable. The Liberals are deeply unpopular after 15 years in office, and Kathleen Wynne’s negatives are particularly high. Doug Ford’s net disapproval rating has gone up. Horwath is the only one who registers more approval than disapproval, and that by a substantial margin.

A recent Leger poll told a similar story. Who would make the best premier? Wynne 12%, Ford 25% and Horwath 20%. Over 40% had not made a choice. Asked a slightly different question – who has what it takes to lead the province – Horwath jumped into the lead at 35%. Ford was at 30%. Wynne’s number was not reported. And as to whether a specific leader would be disastrous for the province, Wynne was described this way by 59%, Ford 44% and Horwath 33%.

Horwath rated higher than both her rivals on characteristics such as competence, trustworthiness, and alignment with the core values of Ontario's population. The NDP has the biggest pool of potential voters, according to Abacus Data. Significantly more would consider voting NDP than either of the others.

I expect this campaign will answer these questions:

1) Is the unpopularity of Wynne and the Liberals deeply baked into public attitudes, or can it be changed? That will likely turn on the answer to the second question.

2) Will those who haven’t yet made up their minds about Ford, or are only leaning toward him, turn against him? That may depend on how successful the Liberals are in redefining him, or whether Ford slips and does their work for them. Abacus Data reported that “Ford Nation” is a political home for a minority of voters. Many PCs don’t like him. Ontario is not the USA. He still has a lot of work to do to consolidate his leading position. Ford may represent change, but it may not be the kind of change that 40% or more of the voters actually want. Thirty percent, yes. Forty percent, possibly not.

3) And if skepticism of Ford remains high, will voters shift to Horwath? This is the third time she will present herself as the Leader of Ontario’s NDP. Will she be able convince voters to trust her approach to change? It took Jack Layton four elections to break through. Is this Andrea Horwath’s moment?

It all comes down to this fact: 80% of the voters want a change in government. Will they gamble on Ford's brand of conservatism, reluctantly go back to Wynne’s Liberals, or view Horwath’s NDP as a solid, safe and progressive option?