Ready, Get Set…

We're on the brink of a federal election. It will likely be called anytime between July 31 and Labour Day, and will take place in September or more likely October.

An aggregate of recent polls show (with 2019 results in brackets): Liberals at 36% (2019 - 33%), Conservatives 28% (2019 - 34%), NDP 19% (2019 - 16%). The most recent polls indicate those trends are intensifying, although a group of polls within the aggregate show the results are closer. The latest poll by Nanos Research has the Liberals at 37.5%, Conservatives 24%, and the NDP at 21.4%. If the final result is the same as the Nanos poll the Liberals would win a sizeable majority. On the eve of the election, Erin O’Toole significantly trails Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh in popularity and in public acceptance as a “good political leader”.

In recent years, we have experienced provincial and federal campaigns that were incredibly stable with the final results very similar to the state of play suggested by pre-election polls. In the same period, we have also seen the chemistry of a campaign change things entirely. The last federal election campaign in 2019 was stable. The Liberals failed to break out of a virtual tie with the Conservatives in popular vote when the campaign began and, in the event, lost their previous majority. 

On the other hand in 2015 to most peoples’ surprise including their own, the Liberals surged from third place to a majority. In 2011 we saw Jack Layton lead the NDP during the campaign from third place into a stunning 103 seats and the role of the Official Opposition. In that election, the minority government Harper Conservatives somewhat surprisingly won a majority. For the first time in Canadian history, the Liberals fell to third place. 

History is also mixed on elections involving parties who enter the campaign as a minority government. Since Confederation eight Liberal minority governments have faced the electorate. Those eight Liberal minority election campaigns ended in three Liberal majorities, three Liberal minorities re-elected, one Conservative majority and one Conservative minority. Five Conservative minority governments have been succeeded by two Conservative majorities, one Conservative minority re-elected, one Liberal majority and one Liberal minority.

The horse race is important. In this election, perhaps more than ever. The campaign presents a historic occasion for the country to make some crucial decisions about its future. We face an existential climate change crisis and a reckoning with our colonial past. Skyrocketing inequality continues to be a huge issue for the country and the planet. COVID has upended the economy. The quality of its recovery is uncertain.

More on all of this in future blogs. I am well-rested after a year and half of retirement and reflection in the company of many thoughtful and interesting folk, one of whom lives with me, others with whom I've met up with on Zoom or outside at a distance of six feet. People have kindly written books for us to read and think about. Others have stimulated our thinking on social media, through podcasts, and in more traditional ways. 

So let’s go, Mr. Trudeau. Drop the writ. We’re ready.