Unanswered Questions

It’s taken me a few weeks to get my head around this curious election. When the writ was dropped in September, we never could have anticipated the shocking photo of the Prime Minister in blackface. We never could have imagined that the Conservative Party leader would turn out to be a U.S. citizen. Each day, another insult or injury. Vote for someone who looks like you. Appeal a tribunal decision on Indigenous children’s rights. Ignore Grassy Narrows.

The overall national polling numbers haven’t changed much despite this unedifying start. In Québec, the Bloc is apparently up over recent elections. The Greens have slipped a bit from its heady numbers at the beginning of the campaign. Otherwise it is much the same as the polls have indicated for months. The Liberals and Conservatives are more or less even with each other but short of majority government. The NDP is at the lower end of its traditional national vote, though it appears to be scrambling back into more familiar territory. If the election were held today, the polls suggest a Liberal-NDP government with a stronger voice in Parliament for the Greens.

Voters who are leaning Green appear to want to send a message that they demand urgent action on climate change – the single most important issue of our times. The Greens’ program on other issues has been criticized as being thin. Voters who are focused on the environment, as we all should be, are asking what is the best way to use one’s vote constructively on the issue. Send a message. Or vote strategically, as the Liberals argue, to keep the environmental do-nothing Conservatives out. Singh and the NDP argue that they are green with substance and will enjoy the realistic prospect of political clout and experience in the next Parliament.

I’ve never been a fan of strategic or tactical voting. Voting is too important an act of citizenship to waste your vote on your second or third choice. If you decide to do it, however, do your homework first and base your strategic vote on the conditions in your own riding. Find out if the Conservative has a serious chance of winning in your constituency and then vote for the “progressive” candidate that has the best chance to defeat the Conservative. Otherwise, vote for your first choice.

Often voters return to their political roots on Election Day even though they toy with other options during the campaign. This tendency should work to the advantage of the Liberals and the NDP this time, both of whom are polling below their traditional vote presently.

This campaign hasn’t caught the imagination of many voters; turnout may be affected. A lower turnout will probably mean the Liberal vote will be a bit lower, perhaps decisively lower than the polls project, further imperiling their chances to regain a majority.

The questions left for last two weeks of the campaign are:

1.    How important are the leaders’ “favourability/unfavourability” ratings? Trudeau’s rating is minus 19 and Scheer’s is minus 11. A higher percentage of Canadians have an unfavourable view of them, compared to those who have a favourable view. Singh’s rating has improved during the campaign to plus 7. Yesterday, Nanos reported that Singh had surged to 45% positive, compared to Trudeau’s 49% and Scheer’s 41% on the question of whether voters thought they had the qualities of a good leader.

2.    Will the Liberals regain sufficient ground to avoid falling into a minority position? The difference is between the 33-35% of the national vote, where they are now, and 40% where they got to last time.

3.    Can Scheer consolidate his base and add a bit from each of the others to squeak into majority territory? The CBC tracker says there is only a 7% chance of a majority Conservative government, but it has been wrong before.

4.    Can Singh and the NDP continue to perform well and take more seats than predicted at the start?

5.    Will the Greens avoid a disappointing election night? Anything over five seats would be judged a success. Anything less, not so much.

6.    Most importantly, which party (if any) will respond to electorate’s fears about the next four years with a vision they can support. At this mid-point, the voters have heard enough about the past. They want to be persuaded that the future will be better.

Tonight's debate is likely to shape the answers.