Unpacking the Election

With the election of Doug Ford and the PCs, Ontario now has a truckload of baggage. We have a lot of unpacking to do.

This time the polls got it right. Voters wanted a change in government. Even before Ford moved into the void created by Patrick Brown’s troubles, a majority was in sight for the Conservatives. The New Democrats have doubled their seats to form the Official Opposition. The Liberals lost official party status and the Greens won a seat.

In the three party splits in every Ontario election since 1943, solid majorities are given to parties that win between 38 and 46%. In the final count, Ford won 41% and pushed the NDP back to 34% from the height of 39% reached mid-campaign (with the exception of two outliers who had them at 42% and 47%.) There was a real chance that the NDP could overtake the Conservatives under Ford’s flawed leadership but its momentum stalled.

A week before the election, the NDP was levitating beyond its natural base of support. It was appealing to a group of voters who had likely never voted NDP. Kathleen Wynne could have rallied progressives to stop Ford and to secure her legacy. Instead, she told voters to think of Ford and Horwath as equally unfit to govern. 

David Miller, former mayor of Toronto, put it this way on Twitter: “The real agony is that [the Liberals] campaigned for a week in a way that elected a government that will undo their agenda: rather than one that would have kept it.” This move, combined with the PC negative ads, put the NDP back on familiar ground. In military terms, the NDP surge got beyond its supply lines. It simply didn’t have the organization to maintain the momentum.

Under this kind of pressure, Liberal and truly Progressive Conservative voters can move left. In my experience, most return home. That’s what happened this time.

Conservatives have governed Ontario for 50 of the past 75 years. They have won 15 out of 22 elections. Their formula is to cater to corporate and suburban Toronto and rural or small town Ontario as they did this time. The character of this government, however, is already different because Ford is not who he appears to some voters to be. He’s more of a Trump-styled American than he is a Canadian. He’s part of the one per cent not the 99%. He inherited a successful business, didn't build one. He acts like he’s above the law not a law-abiding citizen. He’s more of an authoritarian than a libertarian, and a man whose racist and sexist attitudes are so thinly veiled as to provide no cover at all.

According to the polls, half the PC voters backed the party despite Doug Ford not because of him. Luckily, our parliamentary system does not concentrate power in the role of party leader. The British Conservative Party’s caucus ousted Margaret Thatcher when her arrogance became too much for them to bear. If Doug Ford creates a huge sideshow with his personal foibles or drives policy too far right, it is much simpler for the PCs to get rid of him than for the Republicans to get rid of Trump.

I’d like this election to be remembered mostly for what happened on the other side of the House – on the Opposition benches. There is every reason to believe that the historic success of the NDP, the scale of the Liberal defeat, and the election of a first Green MPP may turn out to be important steps towards the realignment of Ontario politics.

Last Thursday, the NDP delivered its best results since 1943 with the exception of the 1990 victory. Seats were won in every corner of the province, building on bases of support established in the last election. The new NDP caucus is refreshing and exciting. It includes more talented women and people of colour who are a reflection of Ontario’s present and promising future. Its core supporters are re-energized after 23 years in a kind of political wilderness. It has also attracted many impressive young people who have bold, challenging visions and modern organizing skills.

Winning 40 seats out of 124, the NDP came second in 61 other ridings. It came within five percent of winning in many others. The Broadbent Institute’s Andrew Jackson observed that the NDP managed to form an electoral coalition of traditional industrial areas and northern Ontario, and highly urban Ontario in this election. Building such a base has eluded most social democratic parties around the world, which have tended to lose their historic base to the right, he says.

Effectively used, Official Opposition status is a big deal. Only four times in 21 elections since 1943 did the CCF or NDP win Official Opposition in Ontario. Unlike this time, they were accompanied in opposition by a strong Liberal contingent with official party status in the Legislature. The Liberals never lost its place in the public mind as the natural alternative to the Conservatives. This could change as a result of this election.

The scale of the Liberal loss is historic. The Liberals have been reduced to a small rump in Ottawa, a single seat outpost in Thunder Bay, and three seats in a Toronto no-man’s-land tucked between the PC suburbs and the NDP sweep of downtown Toronto. The Liberals have been completely wiped out in the rest of the province. They won seven seats in total and were second in only 22 out of 124. They have a long way to come back. Never have they been down to single digit in seats. Never have they been below 20% in the popular vote. Never have they lost official party status, forcing their members to operate as individual independents under House rules unless the Ford government decides to be benevolent.

Political generosity will not come easily to the PCs or the NDP for that matter. Ford’s decision will be entirely based on political considerations. In my view, out of respect for the traditional place of the Liberal Party in Ontario’s history and for those who voted Liberal, the rule on official status should be modified. They are a political party and should be able to participate in the legislature as one.

That move may not be enough to save them. If the NDP uses its new position effectively, it will overshadow the Liberals at every turn. It can demonstrate that it is a strong, sensible, popular and principled alternative to the Conservatives. It can articulate an inspiring and pragmatic social democratic vision consistent with the values of a majority of the electorate and the lone voice of the Green Party in the Legislature. It can recruit strong candidates and a cadre of advisors who can plan for the next election and position the NDP in the tradition of western Canadian NDP governments. It can deepen its organizational roots especially in target areas of the electorate while contributing to the global movement for social and economic justice.

This is the opportunity that awaits the NDP in the 42nd Ontario Legislature.