The Trust Election

-
E-Day minus 43

According to CBC’s Poll Tracker, this week’s topline averages of national voting intentions compared to the start of the campaign:


Today
Aug. 2
NDP
32.1%
33.2%
LPC
29.5
25.9
CPC
27.7
30.9

Within the averages is a wide variation. One poll this week, Forum Research, had the NDP at 36%, the Liberals at 32 and the Conservatives at 24. Another, EKOS, had NDP 30.2%, CPC 29.5 and LPC 27.7.

 We can draw the following conclusions at this point in the race:

  • A Conservative majority is increasingly out of reach. They are now in third place and falling, slowly but steadily. Public attitudes towards Harper -- both for and against -- have hardened.
  • The contest between Mulcair and Trudeau isn’t as close as the aggregate voting intention numbers and the media suggest. What matters is which of the two wins the greatest number of seats in the next House of Commons. Seat projections place Mulcair significantly ahead of Trudeau in Québec. The rest of the country, including Ontario, is more or less evenly divided between them.
  • Outside of Ontario, there isn’t much room for an increase or decrease in the number of seats for either the NDP or the Liberals from current projected levels.
Let’s take a closer look at Ontario. The province will have 121 of 338 seats in the next House of Commons.  At this point, the LPC leads the NDP and the CPC by 4 – 8 points each in Ontario according to national polls. To win more seats than Mulcair overall, Trudeau has to generate the same level of support in Ontario that the NDP leader is realizing in Québec – a projected lead of 40 seats or more over the LPC. Trudeau will need to be ahead of the NDP by more than 20 percentage points in Ontario on October 19. As it stands, the two leaders and their parties are evenly matched when it comes to their potential to make gains in the province over the next six weeks.

 In the end, it will come down to the so-called “ballot question”. On what basis will swing voters – those who are anti-Harper and torn between the Liberals and New Democrats – make their choice in Ontario and elsewhere in the country?

 I think the ballot question is now a two-part one: who should I vote for to make sure Harper is defeated and who can I trust to lead the next government in a manner consistent with my values and hopes for Canada?  This question is, at the same time, principled and pragmatic. 

 It’s a matter of trust on a deep level. Bill C-51, the revelations from the Duffy trial, the deficit, the Syrian refugee response and other hot issues are providing context for swing voters’ deliberations, especially in Ontario, about which leader has the integrity, competence and maturity to be Prime Minister. What do we stand for, who represents us, and how do we want to be governed?

 The next six weeks promise to be intense. Elections touch all of us even those who choose to opt out. The decision is an historic statement about where we are and where we’re headed. This time, it’s also a choice between who we’ve become and who we will be.

Comments

  1. Douglas Tindal7 September 2015 at 08:35

    I like your insight that the ballot question may be both principled and pragmatic. That's where I live -- neither slavishly devoted to an ideology, nor willing to surrender principle for "whatever works." Discussions of strategic voting often overlook the fact that there are still principles underlying the strategy. It's helpful to keep this dynamic in mind.

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Should Biden Step Aside?

-
NY Times writer Ezra Klein recently posted a powerful episode on his podcast called Democrats Have a Better Option than Biden . He makes a strong case that Biden should step aside and require the Democratic convention in August select someone else to run against Trump. Faced with major pushback this week Klein has himself pushed back. Klein argues that it is not that Biden is too old to be President but that he is too old to be the candidate; that there is a very serious chance he won’t beat Trump. He asks us to compare Biden’s YouTube appearance in 2020 and today to convince ourselves that crucial voters have already begun making the judgement that he is too old, fair or not, and Klein believes those who have observed Biden in action over the past four years including in recent months, that Biden in office is fit, decisive and competent. Klein says however that Biden is unable to present himself persuasively that he is in fact fit for office. There is a very serious risk that this wi...
Read more

Our Closing Argument

-
This post is offered by John Brewin and Nils Engell. Nils is a recent graduate from Trent University and a member of the extended Brewin clan for which he has all the necessary qualifications including having a passion for elections, including the current U.S. campaign and polls relating thereto. Finally we can say it: tomorrow is Election Day in the U.S.  None of these three outcomes should be a surprise: Based on a review of all available data we have been able to review, they boil down to: The actual results reflect the polls and in fact will be very close. Harris wins comfortably, even a landslide, or Trump wins comfortably.  We may well know or have a good idea who is going to win by midnight tomorrow night, or the result, in the sense of who will be elected President, won’t be confirmed for days, weeks or months, if ever. Invariably the polls are “wrong” in that they aren’t bang on the final voting result. The national polls especially often don’t tell us who wins power,...
Read more

"Biden Leads!"

-
I usually begin these posts with a review of the current polls. Get ready for something different. I want to share a story from U.S. Presidential history to help us understand this political moment – four months before a crucial election. My take on today’s polls will follow this story. I have been re-reading David McCullough's biography of President Harry Truman, especially the part describing his surprising win in 1948. It’s a useful comparison to President Joe Biden’s situation. In June 1948 Truman was almost universally expected to lose in November that year. The unassuming Truman succeeded FDR at FDR’s death a few months after their inauguration. Truman’s first period as President was politically tough. He was compared negatively to the great Roosevelt. The immediate postwar period was difficult. In the 1946 off-year congressional elections, the GOP swept both Houses of Congress and seemed heading to a certain victory in the race for President in 1948. The Republicans had give...
Read more