John Brewin on Politics

Since February 20th, share values on the Toronto Stock Exchange have fallen by one-third -- even greater than the stock market crash in October 1929. The global pandemic has caused a rapid economic shut down . Unemployment is soaring. There is no likelihood of a quick recovery. Stock market values took two decades to recover from the 1929 crash during which the world experienced the resulting decade-long economic depression and the Second World War. The economic recovery was painfully slow and really only ended with the start of the war. Deep and pervasive unemployment and inadequate safety nets devastated the lives of millions. The ’29 Crash, the ensuing Depression, and the experience of the war fundamentally changed the political landscape across the world. In Canada, the Cooperative Commonwealth Federation (CCF) was formed in 1933. It aimed at ending the two-party Liberal and Conservative hegemony. While the CCF and its successor, the NDP, didn’t subsequently...

It's 2020 – another election year! Looming large is the U.S. Presidential Election. BC voters are likely to go the polls this year too. This is the third day of my retirement from the practice of law after nearly 54 years. While I'm building a new routine, there is one habit that will not change: obsessing over the polls. During the holiday season, I noticed that liberal and progressive Americans (and their Canadian friends) are genuinely pessimistic about their ability to defeat Trump. They're convinced that Trump will triumph in November. He will, once again, bamboozle a sufficient number of voters to steal another win. They believe none of the Democratic candidates will be able to head him off. They can't imagine that Democrats will nominate the candidate least likely to defeat him. At the start of this year, we have to reassure them that all manner of things can happen between now and November 3: removal from office by the Senate (highly unlikely), new and ...

As many of you know, I go to church most Sundays. St. Aidan’s Anglican in the Beaches. While at church, I often think about politics. Tomorrow’s election was top of mind this morning as I listened to two ancient stories during the service. A man named Jacob wrestled with God through the night – ten long hours, we’re told. It’s a narrative about a lifelong struggle as experienced by one imperfect, very human being. In the end, Jacob wins but God strikes him on the hip. He is left disabled. Fighting for justice leaves us with bruises. We’re changed forever. Was that the lesson? I heard the second story as a pre-election parable – as a witness to more than half of Canada’s federal elections almost always from the losing side. It’s the story of a widow denied justice by a cynical judge. She persists and comes back to the judge again and again until finally the he gives in and grants the widow her petition. Who we see as the judge and widow in this story says a lot about ou...

Finally, we’re seeing some movement in the polls. The Liberals and Conservatives have dropped slightly but decisively since the beginning of the campaign. They sit at around 32% each of the national vote. A majority government now seems out of reach for either of them. Jagmeet Singh’s popularity is surging especially among young voters. The NDP is hovering around 20% nationally. It is on track to keep most of its seats outside of Québec and to win new ones. The Greens are holding steady, just below 10% in most polls. This means they won’t make the seat gains predicted at the start. On the other hand, the Bloc is back in the race, ready to stop the Liberals or the Conservatives from getting a majority. The case for and against strategic voting will dominate this last week. Assuming no one can get a majority, the composition of the House of Commons becomes decisive. The first question is whether the Conservatives will be able to form an alliance with anyone. The Bloc is the only p...

It’s taken me a few weeks to get my head around this curious election. When the writ was dropped in September, we never could have anticipated the shocking photo of the Prime Minister in blackface. We never could have imagined that the Conservative Party leader would turn out to be a U.S. citizen. Each day, another insult or injury. Vote for someone who looks like you. Appeal a tribunal decision on Indigenous children’s rights. Ignore Grassy Narrows. The overall national polling numbers haven’t changed much despite this unedifying start. In Qu ébec, the Bloc is apparently up over recent elections. The Greens have slipped a bit from its heady numbers at the beginning of the campaign. Otherwise it is much the same as the polls have indicated for months. The Liberals and Conservatives are more or less even with each other but short of majority government. The NDP is at the lower end of its traditional national vote, though it appears to be scrambling back into more familia...