My Take on the U.S. Election (so far)
As of May 8, 2024, the race is effectively tied, measured by voting intention. The best “average of polls”, or more precisely the “aggregate” of national polls has Trump at 41.5%, Biden 40.4% and Kennedy at 10.2%. The key battleground states, the ones that will determine who wins the Electoral College and the Presidency are also, within the margin of error, tied or are very close. The polls show that on the issues, particularly the economy and cost-of-living, usually the most important bellwether indicators of how folks will vote in the end, Trump is substantially ahead. Biden is “only” ahead on abortion/choice and health care.That may be enough. Since Roe vs. Wade was overturned by the Supreme Court of the United States in 2022, the Democrats have outperformed their polling numbers in every special (by-election) or general election. This has been attributed to a dramatic upswing amongst pro-choice voters and their turning away from GOP candidates. For decades conventional wisdom ...