John Brewin on Politics

As the 2021 federal election campaign winds down, we seem to be heading for a “hung Parliament” -- a Parliament in which no single party can form a stable and sustainable government on its own or, put another way, without the cooperation of members from other parties. The poll aggregate sites show a slight (16%) chance that the Liberals will end up with a majority of at least 170 seats in the House of Commons. The Conservatives’ chances of gaining a majority are now down to 1%. Far more likely (83%) is that no party will have a majority. What happens then? Under our constitution the sitting government (the Liberal Party in this case) may have fewer seats than the Conservatives who themselves fall short of a majority. In these circumstances,Trudeau would still be entitled to meet Parliament and try to win a “vote of confidence”. They could win that vote if one or more of the other parties agreed to support a Liberal Prime Minister, the present one or someone new either within the new Li

We're on the brink of a federal election. It will likely be called anytime between July 31 and Labour Day, and will take place in September or more likely October. An aggregate of recent polls show (with 2019 results in brackets): Liberals at 36% (2019 - 33%), Conservatives 28% (2019 - 34%), NDP 19% (2019 - 16%). The most recent polls indicate those trends are intensifying, although a group of polls within the aggregate show the results are closer. The latest poll by Nanos Research has the Liberals at 37.5%, Conservatives 24%, and the NDP at 21.4%. If the final result is the same as the Nanos poll the Liberals would win a sizeable majority. On the eve of the election, Erin O’Toole significantly trails Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh in popularity and in public acceptance as a “good political leader”. In recent years, we have experienced provincial and federal campaigns that were incredibly stable with the final results very similar to the state of play suggested by pre-election polls. In