John Brewin on Politics

E-Day minus 22 This week, the average of the national polls show the Conservatives and Liberals at 31% and the NDP at 28%. Grenier’s weighted averages are similar (with last week’s percentages in brackets): CPC 30.7% (29.7), LPC 30.8 (29.7) and NDP 29.1 (31.1). The NDP has dropped 2% points. The others have picked up about 1% point each. Despite the slide, the NDP still leads the Liberals in most seat projections. And seats are what count most.  If the NDP can maintain support even at this week’s level, Mulcair will be the Prime Minister after October 19. The week’s polls and seat projections show that the Conservatives have not made any significant progress towards a majority – the only way Harper can stay on as Prime Minister.  As noted in earlier posts, it doesn’t matter if the Conservatives have the most seats as long as they don’t win a majority. The others will find a way to defeat him. Their constituents will demand it. What matters is which party – the NDP or ...

E-Day minus 29 This week’s report on the state of the race: 1.  The Conservatives show no signs of movement towards a majority. They continue to be stuck around 30% of the vote and around 120 to 130 projected seats in the next Parliament. You'll recall that a majority is 170. The Globe and Mail Forecaster advises that there is only a 1% chance that any party, including the Conservatives, will get a majority. In other words, there is more than a 99% likelihood that Harper won’t get a majority and will have to resign or be voted out of office in the House of Commons. This isn't likely to change over the next month. 2.  The NDP continues to lead the Liberals in projected seats. The  average of eight election prediction sites put the NDP and the Conservatives at around 120 seats in the next Commons, and give the Liberals about 100. Half have the NDP with the most seats, half the Conservative. In all of them the NDP leads the Liberals from a low of five (Grenier’s CBC...

E-Day minus 36 This week the polls seem to have different and conflicting stories to tell. The Liberals are on the move. The Conservatives are sinking fast. Wait, the Conservatives are recovering. The NDP is sliding. Hold on a second, the NDP is still in the lead. Here’s the weekly summary: the Grenier CBC Poll Tracker weighted average at the end of the week, with the numbers from the very beginning of the campaign in brackets, show NDP at 32% (33.2), CPC 29.7% (30.9) and LPC 29.4%(25.9). The NDP and the Liberals are virtually unchanged from last week, with a difference of .1% each. The Conservatives are up 2.0% points. If one simply averages the polls that reported during the last week without weighting them, the results are the same as Grenier’s weighted average at week’s end, NDP 32, LPC and CPC 30 each. Grenier applies a weighting to each poll that he incorporates into his averages -- favouring Nanos, for example, and discounting Forum. His weighting is based on an assessm...

E-Day minus 43 According to CBC’s Poll Tracker, this week’s topline averages of national voting intentions compared to the start of the campaign: Today Aug. 2 NDP 32.1% 33.2% LPC 29.5 25.9 CPC 27.7 30.9 Within the averages is a wide variation. One poll this week, Forum Research, had the NDP at 36%, the Liberals at 32 and the Conservatives at 24. Another, EKOS, had NDP 30.2%, CPC 29.5 and LPC 27.7. We can draw the following conclusions at this point in the race: A Conservative majority is increasingly out of reach. They are now in third place and falling, slowly but steadily. Public attitudes towards Harper -- both for and against -- have hardened. The contest between Mulcair and Trudeau isn’t as close as the aggregate voting intention numbers and the media suggest. What matters is which of the two wins the greatest number of seats in the next House of Commons. Seat projections place Mulcair sig...