John Brewin on Politics

Wow, what a roller coaster ride! As I write, it isn’t over yet -- to say nothing of possible legal suits and/or extra-legal challenges. However, it is just about over.  With Wisconsin and Michigan declared for Biden, there are only 17 Electoral College votes to go. They could come from Arizona  or Georgia and Nevada, from North Carolina or from Pennsylvania. To squeak in, Trump could lose either Arizona or Nevada but would have to win everything else. Some will be decided tonight, Pennsylvania likely tomorrow or Friday. Those who have studied it think Biden could win any or all of the above – that is why they are deemed too close to call. Biden could well win them all. It would take winning a plausible number of the remaining ballots, most of which are from pro-Biden areas and are in the form of early mailed-in or dropped off ballots. Democrats used this way of voting more often than Republicans, so they have tended to break towards Biden. Biden has already begun the work of t...

On the night before the U.S. Presidential Election, this is what I see: First, Biden is very likely to win. Today, the polls tell the same story they have been telling throughout the year: Biden has a clear and stable lead in the national vote of at least seven to eight percentage points, more than enough to win the Electoral College. The many reputable and up-to-date state polls are generally and independently   consistent. Biden will likely win Pennsylvania and likely at least one of the other scenarios to put him over the top: Arizona plus the one seat needed and available in Nebraska, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida or Texas.  In addition, there are many other indicators that, experience over my lifetime, lead me to expect a strong victory across the board for the Democrats up and down the ballot. Most notable is the huge increase in turnout across the electorate. There are simply too many independent and unrelated indicators pointing in the same direction. Second, a cert...