John Brewin on Politics

Finally we're seeing signs that the long nightmare of the Trump presidency may be over soon. A majority of Americans are now recognizing Trump for who he is: completely unfit for this high office. They're telling pollsters that they will not re-elect him. His electoral support is melting at the edges. For a month and a half at least, Biden has consolidated a steady nine to 10% point lead nationally according to a wide variety of national and state polls. The lead is more than enough to overcome any possible Electoral College advantage Trump may have, and any slippage in the remaining months of the campaign. Biden is solidly ahead in all of the “tipping states” like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida, the ones that will make the difference in the Electoral College. He's also competitive in states like Texas, Iowa, Montana and Georgia that could well lead him to a big victory and control of the Senate. The underlying numbers explain why this is happening and what Trump is up...

In the U.S. and here in Canada as well, political anxiety levels are off the charts. Outside of the Trump bubble, folks have no idea how Trump could possibly have won last time, though they did develop a few theories. No one has any idea how he has managed to stay in office, except that the U.S. system of governance is dysfunctional.  Now he is behind in the polls, we can only be certain either that the polls are wrong, that he will lie and cheat his way back and/or challenge his defeat and get it reversed by the Supreme Court, or otherwise refuse to leave the White House. I’m with James Carville on all of this. Bill Clinton’s strategist and now generally cranky old guy pundit has predicted that either Trump will lose or he’ll quit before the election even happens. I think he is right. One of the other will happen. He won’t be re-elected. We can relax, just a little bit. Here’s why he will lose if he doesn’t quit first. The current state of public opinion in the United States amon...