John Brewin on Politics

In a close election like this one, the polls can cause considerable emotional angst, especially in the week before Election Day.  Here’s your guide to avoid freaking out, apart from shutting all of this out completely and avoiding the polls altogether. Let's start with a summary as of 6 p.m., Tuesday, May 29, 2018. It’s a virtual tie between the NDP and the PCs with the Liberals still in distant third place and continuing to decline in voter support. Because of how the vote is distributed in the 124 ridings, the PCs have an edge in the hunt for the crucial number of seats needed for a majority -- 63. To determine how things will work out in the final eight days, the poll zealots are looking for evidence as to the impact of the leaders debate on Sunday. The first returns came in this afternoon from Innovative Research. It showed that since they reported their numbers last week the NDP is up by five percentage points to 36%. The Liberals are down four points to 22% and the PCs a...

Today’s Ipsos poll confirms last week’s polls. Across Ontario the PCs are at 40%, NDP 35%, Liberal 22% and others 3.5%. In the past two weeks the PC are steady or stalled, depending on your perspective, but numbers at these levels can produce a majority. The NDP is now firmly and decisively established in second place as the chief, and perhaps only, rival to Ford. The strategic considerations for the parties and the voters had changed dramatically by the end of the first week. Liberals now face a tough decision. To stop Ford, do they move their votes to the NDP? Or, do they still have a chance of defeating PCs? For NDP supporters, how to appeal to Liberals is straightforward. But how do they appeal to soft PC votes? To which ridings should they shift resources? Constituencies like Durham or Peterborough or all of the Brampton ridings come into play on these numbers. They will likely make the difference between a Ford or Horwath government. How do you assess the state of play in yo...

Most of the people I know think Doug Ford is likely to win the upcoming provincial election. But they’re not happy about it.  The current evidence tells us that Ford is on the cusp of a victory but it’s not inevitable. When the writ is dropped on Wednesday, the campaign will begin with the PCs hovering at 40% of the total vote – the historic magic number for winning a majority in the Ontario Legislature.   The last three polls, all published today by reputable firms, have the PCs at 35%, 40% and 43% for an average of 39%. The Liberals are at 29%, 23% and 26% in these three polls – an average of 26%. The NDP stand at 29%, 30% and 26% for an average 28%, In 14 previous polls reported since Ford was elected to lead the PCs, the Conservatives averaged 43%, Liberals 27%, the NDP 24% and the rest 6%. As the campaign gets underway, it's important to know what the threshold is for a majority when three parties are in the running. Ontario has had a three party syste...