John Brewin on Politics

E-Day minus 50 The polls this week have reported a wider range of results than in previous weeks. The overall picture, however, has not fundamentally changed.   The Grenier CBC Poll Tracker average is NDP 36%, CPC 28 and LPC 27 compared to last week’s 34, 29, 28. The small NDP gain is the result of one poll, by Forum Research, that had the NDP at 40%. This wasn’t repeated by any other poll, although Angus Reid did have the NDP at 37. The rest had the NDP generally in the area of 33-35%. The Forum poll, as with the Nanos poll at the low end of the range, should be discounted until it is confirmed by other polls. So far that hasn’t happened. The key takeaways at this leg of the marathon are: The NDP is still on track to win a greater number of seats in Parliament than the Liberals on October 19. The Conservatives continue to be a long way from majority/survival numbers. The Duffy trial is one more significant obstacle that the Conservatives have to overcome. (If you...

E-Day minus 57 On the surface there wasn’t much change in the election campaign this week. The aggregate top line numbers have barely moved since the writ was dropped August 2. Eric Grenier’s CBC Poll Tracker shows the NDP nationally at 34% (+1 since August 2), the CPC 29 (-2) and the LPC 28 (+2). Ironic for a “change” election. Mulcair is asking if we’re “ready for change.” Trudeau is promising “real change.” And Harper is urging us to fear the uncertainties created by change. However, there was movement in the polls beneath the surface. A large poll by CROP shows the federal NDP with more support in Quebec than it got in 2011, far ahead of the opposition Liberals, Bloc and Conservatives. In an extended poll of Quebec, Leger also had a similar picture for the NDP in the province. Taken together both polls and most of the Quebec subsets of national polls show the NDP is fending off a potential challenge by the Bloc, limiting the Liberals to west Montreal and the Conservative...

E-Day minus 64 Three main “events” in the opening two weeks of the election campaign: the debate, the polls and Nigel Wright’s testimony. The debate was a draw from which the Liberals got a slight uplift. The Conservatives and NDP confirmed their positions. On average, the poll numbers didn't budge much. The impact of Nigel Wright’s testimony and the ensuing media commentary is not yet reflected in the polls. None of the published polls were taken after Wright’s testimony began, except for the last day of the Leger polling. Leger was published Saturday and unusually showed the CPC dropping to third place, NDP 33, LPC 28, CPC 27. Start of a trend, perhaps, a polling anomaly or a brief negative blip? We'll see. Key and obvious conclusion from the early polling: there have been no breakouts from the close bunching of all three parties. Yet is it really a tie, as the media prefer to describe it? They like a tight contest. To describe an election as close suggests neutral...

E-Day minus 75 The opening polls are all over the place. Yesterday morning, before the announcement, Nanos released a poll that had CPC at 31.5, NDP 30.1, LPC 29.3. It was taken over four weeks, back to July 5. This morning we woke up to Innovative Research with NDP 33.7, CPC 29.3, LPC 25.8, taken July 24 to 30. Finally Forum had NDP 39, CPC 28, LPC 25. Forum polling was entirely done yesterday after the election was called. Eric Grenier's CBC Poll tracker which weighs and averages recent polls thus creating  a more accurate larger sample and a useful mix of methodologies had the campaign start at NDP 33.2, CPC 30.9 and LPC 25.9. This included the three polls released yesterday and today. Truisms about the polls: 1. Up to a point, trust them for what they are, the best rough snapshot of where public opinion is now, much better than going to a pub or the hair salon/barber shop and asking around. 2. Polls that are significantly different from the Grenier averages are prob...